Sort-of as promised, the algo's are having their way with this wave as U.S. equity prices, as measured by the daily ES E-mini futures failed to make a new high today and, in fact, headed back to the 18-day SMA, often the neutral point on the chart, to figure out what to do next. The daily chart is below. Note that intraday, the highs of each of the possible upward first waves were overlapped downward today. Also observe the daily slow stochastic is only in over-bought territory and is not embedded.
The new blue trend lines are tentative only and I think they will be adjusted later. There 'might' be a triangle in the making but with lower odds. Why? See the chart below which is the 4-hr chart.
Notice that twice in the last two days, price bumped up against the 90% level. And, while possible, it is not common for triangles to do. So, a triangle bucks the odds a bit even though the trading is whippy as all get-out.
Rather the better odds at the moment are for a Flat wave if prices keep heading lower. For now let's see what prices do at the 18-day SMA. If they close below it again, it would likely tilt the daily bias to down. Then we'll go from there.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
If we have indeed completed an expanded flat, this has got to be the most reluctant C wave I have ever seen!
ReplyDeleteDiagonal? Instead of expanded flat?
DeleteOr possibly a triangle.
DeleteSPX a stone's throw from yet another ATH. Other indices will likely follow. Did not think the others would join small caps but they did.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uUShDkI6/
ReplyDeleteOr a triangle as u said although zig zag for c and d are not that clear
ReplyDeleteYeh...very little clear in this market at the moment...no doubt by design...!
Deletehttps://postimg.cc/bDsBn8ZX
ReplyDeleteDiagonal up as b? Labeling as placeholders only.
Thoughts? Bueller?...Anyone?
I tend to agree with that count. Good job. Could go up a bit or fail. C down to finish October per usual seasonal weakness.
DeleteGood use of three-touch trend lines. Could be the double-or-triple zz form. Most likely triple, but still uncertain. TJ.
DeleteLuc - Thanks, appreciate it.
DeleteTJ - Thanks. Parallel lines on the b wave didn't seem to have the right look.
I wonder if this count as a triangle and then backtest of.the triangle resistance and which is now the support https://www.tradingview.com/x/6qBfNooZ/
ReplyDeletemy view is that quasi-triangle is missing a segment. TJ.
DeleteNew ATH in NQ. I expect the others will confirm. Starting to look for alternatives to a corrective wave as this one a bit atypical.
ReplyDeleteWith the move over the high, and expanded flat becomes a more probable pattern. As noted earlier, any short-term triangle was a less probable one. But I do have one additional idea for later. TJ
ReplyDeleteWe could be staring at the first two waves of a large triangle which could end up being the B wave, that is being looked for.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ