For today's post, here's a freebie on YouTube from Elliott Wave International. All I will say is that it is interesting that they now have adopted my equity count, and not the other way around. After all, it was they who initially taught me to count waves.
There are also some other interesting relationships and data points.
As always, you can make the video larger by clicking the [ ] (full screen) icon in the lower right of the video.
Have an excellent rest of the day and evening.
TraderJoe
We call that the student becoming the master!
ReplyDeleteWhat was their previous count?
ReplyDeletePrechter called for the decline after the 2021/2022 top. If you wish you can watch Allessio try to talk Robert Prechter forward to 2025/6, and Prechter just won't hear of it.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCwj5zbKsYI
TJ
What about this then?
Deletehttps://www.neowave.com/tradingblog/blog.asp?bid=201
What about it? Do you have a question about it? Clearly, the little 'b' is incorrect as the market is at a new all-time-high, and 'b' is not placed so. TJ.
DeleteCorrect. So in a running contracting triangle to be correct, 1) can the little b overlap 2) how was it determined that October low of 2023 will not be broken for 50 years?
Delete@manu .. there is no such structure as a "running triangle". Neely just refuses to use the term diagonal for some reason. Answers: 1) irrelevant, 2) you'd have to ask Neely.
DeleteEvery market movement I have seen can be explained with the rules in the Elliott Wave Principle. The new patterns Neely added (Diametrics, Running Triangles, etc.) can all be explained by other common Elliott structures.
TJ
Of course there's such a thing as a running triangle. In my EWP book it's on page 50, figure 1- 43.
DeleteYes, Roy. But it is not constructed as Neely's is. TJ.
DeleteSorry, I was out & didn't have time for a good reply. Roy is of course correct. The EWP has the running contracting triangle, but 'by-the-rules' the E Wave must correct down over the prior high at the start of the triangle. Neely shows his E wave as not correcting down to that D wave. The problem is when you 'break the rules' like that you can literally come up with almost any count you want. The rule that E closes down over its prior high (with the other legs contracting) assures it is a "running triangle". When that rule is not followed then either a contracting diagonal, an impulse, or some other unknown pattern is forming.
DeleteThe rules are there to keep the patterns in-tact and give them clear invalidation points. I hope this helps.
TJ
Interesting. I tried to put that in a chart and not able to do( as per Neely count)-the rule breaks.
DeleteTJ- can you please post a rough chart of what are you suggesting. It is seems it will result in a diagonal.
Here you go. By rule, 'e' and (E) in a valid running triangle 'must' overlap (D) - or the prior impulse high, or the prior (B) wave high, or the prior (W) wave high. Otherwise, there is no actual 'correction' of the prior 'up' wave. This is a 'rule'.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MsHdIIXw/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: as far as I can tell using the intraday wave-counting-screen, there was an expanding diagonal down to a new low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dG3EuRiR/
This suggests watching the overnight high.
TJ
Thanks for the alert, TraderJoe! 😀
DeleteHourly and daily charts continue to look to me like price consolidation. Could a larger triangle of some sort be in play?
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: ES has a new high. Downward diagonal was 'ending'. Likely a smaller (b) wave down, and now five-waves in a 'c' wave up.
ReplyDeleteTJ
My count as well! 😊
DeleteCounting 1 of 5 up...
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 2-min: here is the structure at the end of the day. (Clearly expanding diagonal). Things are getting more and more absurd as these structures are supposed to be extremely rare.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PkMKNFyE/
TJ