Clear Indications in an Elliott Wave

Yesterday and today, we were able to count a triangle. It did not appear to be a running triangle, just a regular contracting triangle. The ES hourly chart below shows the triangle on the right-hand-side.

ES Futures - Hourly - Indications

Based on the FOMC wave compression we simply cannot say whether the peak before the Ⓑ wave is a 'three' with the triangle as 'four' and the new high as much of 'five', OR, whether - because of the size of the triangle the wave before the Ⓑ wave is a larger 'a' wave of a diagonal with the thrust out of the triangle as the 'c' wave of a larger diagonal.

Regardless, the wave structure gives off a heck of a lot of clues. First, wave v (or c) is not 'done' until price travels under the Ⓔ wave of that triangle. Next, a wave lower is not confirmed until under the Ⓐ wave of the triangle.

Because a diagonal 'could' form, a downward wave 'could' retrace 62 - 82% of wave iv and still be acceptable in a diagonal wave. But such a wave cannot go below iv, and price would likely have a trend change if it does.

Notice the EWO is throwing off a lot of fourth wave signatures at the hourly chart level. Still, on the daily chart level, the BIAS is up, price has contacted the upper Bollinger Band again, and the daily slow stochastic is still embedded.

One thing that might be watched is this: say over the weekend there is a smaller degree triangle, and a higher high; that still might end only smaller degree wave ① of v, so be sure to see whether that triangle Ⓔ wave breaks or not on a downward retrace.

Have an excellent start to the evening and to the weekend.

TraderJoe