Hourly Trend Line - In the Making

In the SPY cash hourly index, as confusing as some things might be, there are four or five indisputable facts as shown in the chart below.

The most undisputed item would be the measurement. The up wave made 90%+ of the prior down move. So, if the prior down move is only a :3, then the up move can be the "B" wave of a Flat. If the down move is a :5, then it might be the 'deep retrace' from the diagonal counted provided that price does not exceed the prior high.

The second most likely undisputed item would be that a three-touch trend line has formed in the cash market. The nearly precise rebound off it at the end of the session means the market itself probably recognizes it. So, any break lower and/or back-test & failure of this trend line in the cash market needs to be watched very closely.

The third most likely undisputed item would be the volume on today's close. While a bunch of bulls (green volume bar in the middle of today's session) chomped on the fishhook at the exact high, the red bars started to gain in prominence into the close.

Fourth, like it or not, on this time frame the MACD had a cross and red histogram bars. It remains to be seen if that holds.

Fifth, we counted a wedge to the high. It might be disputed whether it is a true diagonal, and/or whether it has been decisively defeated yet. But the pattern ended on time and without any problems in the measurements. So, it would not be surprising if the up gaps in the chart start filling to the downside, depending on the news tomorrow.

Is there still a way for prices to lurch higher? There is, yet the odds keep getting lower & lower.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe