Overnight the ES futures went down to tag the 18-day moving average of closes, also known as 'the line in the sand'. Prices have since started to bounce from there as in the daily chart, below. The 18-day SMA is the place where prices often retreat to in order to figure out what to do next. This again might be the case with the FED minutes today, and Jackson Hole on Friday.
Looking at the chart we note several things: 1) there has been a more forceful overlap on L #1. This again is not fatal, but it does rule out some impulsive upward counts. 2) While this morning's lower low has the trend line currently pointing down, it has a prior higher high and now the lower low which is not typically counted as a trend. And it is currently above the 18-day SMA - so even if it was a trend - it is still neutralized by the daily bias still being upward. 3) the daily slow stochastic is currently below the 79% level. That is a warning that price and the 18-day SMA could come together. Well, they already have, they occurred almost simultaneously. 4) The only day that the embedded status can be regained is the next day, if it remains lost through the close. 5) Although not followed by many, we will note there is an upward cross of the 100-day over the 200-day SMA. This has some weak bullish significance to moving average followers.
The overlap of L #2 would provide more information from a wave-counting-perspective but that has not happened yet. So, keep an eye on things.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraderJoe
ES 4-Hr: as far as I can tell, there is now overlap on L #2. This rules out about the last impulsive up count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/x66ulIrW/
TJ
Reminder: FOMC minutes at the top of the hour. TJ.
ReplyDelete"WASHINGTON, Aug 20 (Reuters) - The two Federal Reserve policymakers who dissented against the U.S. central bank decision's to leave interest rates unchanged last month appear not to have been joined by other policymakers in voicing support for lowering rates at that meeting, a readout of the gathering released on Wednesday showed."
ReplyDeleteSPY cash 15-min: with about 100 candles on the chart, here's how things look. There is a 2.618 down wave, and a 38%+ retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/S1TF5JkW/
The AO 'looks like' a fourth wave signature but not the best one. Still a lower low would likely lead to a five-down conclusion. Right now, the Principle of Equivalence still applies with odds to a lower count, but not a surety.
TJ
Now a better fourth-wave signature; and over 100 candles, if it holds within limits.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AvB8V6ni/
TJ
ES 1-day: and back to the 18-day SMA to regroup before Jackson Hole, tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/P6rdCvw8/
The daily slow stochastic has lost its embedded status and can only regain it tonight/tomorrow.
TJ