You've heard of "Freeways", right? Where traffic is supposed to zoom along like I-15 to Las Vegas, right? Not like the "405" that crawls you down to a crunch stop on the way from LA to San Diego, right? Well, today's market, so far, in front of the Federal Reserve announcement, dot-plots, and press conference is more like the latter, but what I have termed temporarily "Three-Ways".
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| ES/SPY/CFD - 2 Hr - Three-wave Sequences Only |
As of this morning anyways, the two-hourly ES/SPY/CFD has only three-wave sequences. And last night's up wave was longer than the immediately prior b wave. Further, note the downward c wave stopped around that 78.6% level which could indicate a triangle.
So, the bottom line is that highs or lows need to be broken to get out of this mess. A triangle is possible, overall. A downward diagonal is possible for the most recent wave. Fittingly, the front-month ES contract is only down to the 18-day SMA as of last night with the daily slow stochastic in over-bought condition only (not embedded) - and this is where it often goes in front of major announcements.
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| ES Sep Futures - Daily - Bounce from 18-day SMA |
So, be careful as whippy conditions could prevail. Lots of valid Elliott Wave structures are valid from here, so it is more a case now of ruling out what becomes not possible - or less possible - based on price lengths made today. On the first 2-hr chart, one might especially watch the 78.6% upward level in the triangle eventuality, or the low of the c wave in the downward diagonal eventuality.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TraderJoe
ES/SPY/CFD 15-min: going into the FED, the blue down wave is longer in price than the black down wave. That will help sort out some possibilities.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tJjHgMgN/
TJ
FED decision leaves rates unchanged. Some higher interest rate projections. TJ.
ReplyDeleteHere is the wizard chart for the fed.
ReplyDeletehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=TSH7
Thanks for all the work TJ! I check in daily, but I think we are going to need months to sort this out.
See below. TJ.
DeleteES Daily - interesting there was no new daily higher high on the FED. They are apparently handcuffed by uncertainty over the tariffs.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pjjudyRX/
Then, prices got back to the 18-day SMA and bounced a bit. A big question is whether lower daily lows can be made, if higher daily highs were not. That would likely 'set' a downtrend in place - if it occurs.
TJ