I'm not sure if this pattern will play out on the SPY 15-min chart, and it might take some time. But it is possible we have a wedge count with overlap, w-x-y to a ⓑ-3 wave, up, from an ⓐ-3 wave down. We know price went over the high, so the large down move likely does not count impulsively, even though portions of it look impulsive.
Note that the potential double zigzag does have the suggested overlap and x is larger than the prior (b). Such a pattern might be a fourth wave in the "A" wave, up. And it might be needed to generate some bearishness with the extreme sentiment readings we are seeing now. For this pattern to play out, look for a five-waves-down pattern, and a retrace that does not go over the y wave high.
Have an excellent rest of the day,
TraderJoe
A diagonal like this (with downward overlap, too) presently works. But it still is prudent to see if the high holds, as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J64RPtpI/
A slight longer ⑤ could still occur in the diagonal but not if certain upward limits are breached first. If the high holds. one would then look for a lower wave that undercuts the low of the diagonal.
TJ
a larger wave ⑤ is now ruled out by measurement. TJ.
DeleteES has moved out of corrective channel but with Holiday volume does not seem to excited.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/R4neHwu
two y's..? TJ.
DeleteSick and no coffee!
DeleteGet well. Have some hot tea w lemon! TJ
Delete...and GINGER...! 😊
DeleteSPY 5-min: the cash high did not hold. Adding a possible x-z to the wedge. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: double false-break possible; watch the low of prior x wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hIzyBF41/
TJ
Now down through prior 'x' wave in a reasonably impulsive wave lower. Watch the high for a retrace that does not go over the high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/l0ZrJyGu/
TJ
ES made a higher high in the post session. Still can be a 'b' wave or possible contracting diagonal. Still no down wave without a retrace that doesn't go over the prior high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteThis is now officially the longest daily overbought streak on record going back to 1970 (life of data).
ReplyDeleteOverbought extremes on ALL time-frames. Unprecedented leverage I suspect...
DeleteAs master trader Bill Williams says in his book, Trading Chaos, "there is no such thing as overbought or oversold, because 'for every buyer, there must be a seller, and vice-versa'." And most technical analysis is largely backward "curve-fitting". The markets are chaotic systems. You can't trade the same market twice (you can't step in same stream twice). TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: bull volume tailed off quite a bit. Let's see if a "spinning-top" gets confirmed. These are more 'immediate' or (almost) leading indicators of price.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/B3WElVOM/
TJ
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ReplyDeleteThose aren't valid wave labels (can't have III, followed by III). Otherwise, I don't know what you are doing except parroting the count I showed earlier in Saturday's post. It is also unclear what you are referring to in AJ or BJ. If you don't take time to explain yourself, then your posts are of little value and will be deleted. TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: well the spinning top was good for something, but now need to watch the high and lower of this 30-min candle. The Ⓩ wave could still extend as prices are inside of 1.236, even yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ujpqCxwk/
TJ
SPY 3-min: 78% deep retrace. Possible diagonal for c of Ⓩ ? Needs to go over the high once more, but not by much.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t6v2ZVlN/
Alternate is expanding diagonal downward.
TJ
Expanding diagonal downward did occur and broke the prior low. Will check if it can still be the end of a larger-in-time 'b' wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aksB92LB/
TJ
SPY 30-min: I'll just say that we must consider a 'z' wave truncation which are fairly frequent. And that red volume has been increasing, as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zu3Z5hET/
I can envision ways for this to extend if it wants, so the local highs and lows must be watched for a brief while.
TJ
SPY 30-min: one way to continue 'might' be with a triangle, on a larger time frames. But I give the odds only at 50-50. Still, the trend is one's friend until it isn't.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QSIquwA7/
TJ
shoudl one expect lot of window dressing on the last day of the year?
ReplyDeleteFascinating year! Unless somehow corrective, new ATHs imply previous declines "could" have been waves of lower degree than the originally thought Revisiting all my long term counts ATM
ReplyDelete"somehow corrective" points to B wave from Oct 22. not dead. and "waves of lower degree" could mean Oct 23 low was a 2 not a 4.
Deletepls see 12:50 pm, below. TJ.
DeleteSPY 30-min: making a case for wave ① of c-5 down; watch to see if a retrace does not go over the high. Red volume nudging up a tad.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0qliyUvZ/
TJ
..down wave is already longer than first Ⓧ, invalidating any further 'contracting' diagonal. TJ
DeleteES 8-hr: with 132 candles on the chart, it 'looks like' the EWO is just trying to get back to the zero line. Recall the first-of-the-month, and first-of-the-quarter phenomenon.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/TdGcraFg/
Go easy, a triangle or flat may be possible here. The triangle would be a shade better for alternation (and might better fit the low volume).
TJ
note, too: wave ③ at 0.618 times wave x① is a pretty common phenomenon when the first wave extends. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: as far as I can tell, yesterday's expanding diagonal was 5-3-5-3-5 and it later converted this morning to a full impulse. Overall, it might be an 'a' wave down in a larger triangle as shown on the ES 8-hr. Now retracing.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/f8EcZHhl/
TH
ET - Hope you are doing well. In the above chart in expanding diagonal wave (2) took more time than wave (4). Also wave (3) took more time than wave (5). Shouldn't (4) > (2) and (5) > (3) in both price and time. Is that requirement only for 3-3-3-3-3 expanding diagonal ?
DeleteYes, that is correct, but there are no EW 'rules' around time - just guidelines. So, regarding the objection, no 'rules' are broken but guidelines are not adhered to. That is why I suggested a truncation could also have occurred at one of the highs, both of which are over 78% retraces - in the zone for truncations. The truncation would also imply the 'upward b wave nature' of this count. TJ.
DeleteThanks ET!
DeleteSPY 5-min: here's what's on the chart as of the cash close. Remember, overall, price can be in a light-volume triangle; or other fourth wave on an ES 8-hr.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zob8iKJC/
TJ
Few of the waves between (2) and (3) in wave "a" overlap with wave (1).
DeleteIs that overlap allowed because the overlapping waves are of lower degree ?
If I understand your question, overlaps are allowed because "all of a" is a leading contracting diagonal where overlaps are allowed and are to be expected. The zigzag for (3) counts as a-triangle-b-c and there are overlaps in that tiny triangle too. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the year-end.
ReplyDeleteTJ