As an outside day down, today's high should not be taken out within two trading days or it might become a trap for the bears. Today may have finished the a wave, up. Here is the ES 4-Hr chart.
 |
| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Possibly into b wave down |
As noted before I'd like to see between a 38% and 87% wave down. In the event the support areas do not hold and the low is exceeded first, the alternate has to be that the up wave is a more-difficult-to-count zigzag to be all of the fourth wave (iv), up, of the downward expanding diagonal. The primary count tries to recognize that this fourth wave can take much more time in an expanding diagonal than the second wave.
Note above that the wave ④ low has been exceeded lower in the first step of the confirmation process. The next two steps would be a lower high, followed by a low below today's low.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Fascinating how traders are buzzing with bullish sentiment over Marty Zweig's recent "Breadth Thrust" trigger. I am keeping a close eye on the bond market. Everyone seems to have forgotten what historically befalls markets at each and every instance of a FED end to a rate hiking cycle. The record is indeed flawless in forecasting outcomes one year hence. A lot can transpire in twelve months, and today's auction was a cautionary tale!
ReplyDeleteone more high coming it looks like, they just can't leave 4400 alone
ReplyDeleteBB at 4450, that should convince the majority to go bull. Fear/ greed index still painting a pessimistic picture.
DeleteLooks like we had 5 down off the highs and a corrective move up underway. Russell has already re-tracee about 50% of the move up off the recent November low
ReplyDeletemaybe a 4th of A in play yesterday we saw the end of 3.
Deletei see 3 waves down from yesterday high
ReplyDeleteIt certainly was
DeleteSPY 15-min: over the high & confirmation step #2 (lower high) invalidated.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NAbGdGhC/
TJ
ES 1-Hr: ES is also now over the high. Can still be a (b)-3 wave of a flat, with the (c) wave down to make 38% or greater. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: up wave 'can be' considered as a,b,c but I'd want to see the lower parallel break, be back-tested and have the back-test fail.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rlbTuqpe/
TJ
What I'm thinking!
ReplyDeleteNot if they were nimble! 😁
ReplyDeleteSure they do .. after the cash close. Good thing I had my futures quotes going or I wouldn't have seen the dip.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/moodys-cuts-usa-outlook-to-negative-citing-higher-interest-rates-and-deficits.html
TJ
so you think we saw B up based on cnbc news
DeleteSee 5:32 pm, below. TJ.
DeleteIs it possible the ENTIRE upward correction is complete??!! ☺️
ReplyDeleteYes..it is possible but NOT confirmed. Ira's guidelines - filter by that 18-day DMA. No exceptions! TJ.
DeleteYes Sir! Have an awesome week-end all!
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ