The daily ES futures traded higher overnight, then initially lower when the CPI report came out. Then when the cash market opened, prices traded higher enough to allow the SPY to make a new higher high, as well. When cash did make it's marginal higher high, futures did not. One result is that the two are out-of-sync. Regardless, prices headed lower and undercut the prior day's low, reaching down to the 18-day SMA as shown below.
At the 18-day SMA prices bounced a bit, retracing 50% of the cash wave. The daily slow stochastic remains in over-bought territory. Today's bar is important. If the high of an outside bar down is taken out in the next two trading sessions, it might set a trap for the bears. If the low is taken out first, it would probably represent continuation lower, but one might want to see another close below the 18-day SMA before reaching any conclusions.
From an Elliott Wave perspective in the comments for the prior post, we showed the four-hour chart with two good possibilities at this time. As of the cash close neither of them has yet been taken off the table.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Indecision candle :) QQQ closed inside after rejected off it's down trend line.
ReplyDeleteTJ, Are there not degree violations in that 4hr ES you posted?
ReplyDeleteGood question, but I don't think so. Remember, the prior higher degree wave in the 'same direction' is (a)-3.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/k46ZU6mU/
Then, wave-i is smaller than that wave, and wave ii is smaller than it's prior wave in the same direction or wave (b). As far as I can tell wave-three's are 'allowed to grow' as long as they contain progressively smaller degree waves. Clearly, wave-iii's initial wave have to be much 'smaller in time' than (a)-3. To analyze wave-iii in detail, you'd have to get inside that bar and see how quick and short the waves were. I'm not going to do that as the main considerations for waves-i&ii were met.
But why do I think wave three's must be allowed to 'grow by smaller degree extensions'? Because there are some expanded flats where C is (2 x A-3) + B or where C = (2.618 x A-3) + B. Those are documented. I don't see how those wave measurements can form unless "wave three can grow by smaller degree extensions" - that means quick, choppier waves within wave three.
TJ
I was looking at circle 1 being much larger than 1.
DeleteI didn't want to get inside the wave, but these are 'smaller degree' extensions within iii. They are in the futures. As far as I can tell, it's 'OK' or close to it.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rD6ty69U/
TJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/6CraEKBy/
DeleteI hope I am not going crazy, but this is the one I was looking at the (1) of iii is greater than 1 which I thought was a violation.
Sorry if I am missing something.
SPY 15-min: if the ES and the SPY can both get back over the high again today, it would be a great way to get them both back in gear (in the same count).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/7diDc9Jn/
TJ
..or it they both fail, too. TJ.
DeleteSPY 15-min: since the 78.6% has been exceeded by a bit, move the alternate red (or failure top v) down to that location until the high is exceeded.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kfFfLug8/
TJ
Crazy moves in gold today. I suspect that The Boyz are going to crash the stock market like 29/87 and are piling into the next hot asset class ahead of the crash (and inevitably the printing of fiat currency units just about to be unleashed on the world).
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: through the prior low. Looks like a failure.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Cvq7j9AB/
TJ
ES, too. TJ.
DeleteWaiting to see if gold gets back above e wave to confirm that first move off the top from 2085 was a w or a 5 as TJ remarked.
ReplyDeleteThis was very frustrating at the time but this seems to work.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/peRGPRz
In 2-day GOLD I would watch this potential pattern very, very carefully before assuming upside.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zsKeCaV3/
It's 'possible' w-x-y would fit inside a triangle, but it might be than an (a) wave would eventually be the much simpler pattern.
TJ
SPY 5-min: this is grinding away on the equivalent of the ES 18-day SMA. So, it might pop again. Upper trend line tentative only.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9Zewya56/
TJ
There was an additional pop up, then a fall back to the 18-day SMA. A grind for much of the afternoon. Doesn't seem very bullsh.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LiJnPg6O/
TJ
A new post was started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ