The ES 4-Hr chart shows a wave that is down to its lower parallel. As shown, the second down wave c / -i is shorter in price and time than the first down wave. Thus, it may be counted as a subwave lower as well as a completed c wave.
Again, we are showing the count this way because the roll-over contract can not be counted any other way.
At the end of the day the daily futures again closed below the daily Bollinger Band. This is where many traders get most bearish, but to paraphrase Ira Epstein "the odds of staying outside of the band are only 5% of the time. The Smart Money - if bearish - will try to come back in at higher prices inside of the band." Readers of this blog should plot the futures as was done yesterday to verify the slow stochastic is still embedded, and Ira's calculation of the slow stochastic went embedded for the first time today. The regular calculation did so yesterday as I showed.
Some features of the ES 5-min chart, below, are these: 1) three impulsive waves lower, 2) a large triangle fourth wave lower, 3) an ending contracting diagonal fifth wave lower. And this was followed by..
... an expanding diagonal wave higher. One should watch this formation carefully to see if the low holds, and/or if it morphs into an impulse higher.
Readers of this blog who are newer to Elliott Wave analysis should study the above chart, particularly to observe the alternation and styles in the downward wave. It was precisely the presence of the contracting diagonal lower at 15:20 that prompted me to reiterate Ira's warning about selling "new" outside of the lower band at exactly that time.
These things are possible when Elliott Wave is studied in detail. Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Also interesting to note that if one were to draw lines strictly through the candle highs/lows, the contracting diagonal 5th wave would not "look" right.
ReplyDelete..and wave three of the contracting diagonal is a little longer in time. But Prechter has noted such things can happen and not be a problem. TJ.
DeleteChart looks to me like flagging price action...
ReplyDeleteTJ thanks for your work. I'm counting the waves as: x wave early sept as wave 1. wave 2 up on sept 16th. Now Wave 3 down is subdividing into 5 subwaves. Wave 3 could be done or bit more down.
ReplyDeleteYesterdays low was also horizontal support on the ES daily.
ReplyDeleteLooks pretty weak not to be able to generate even a little five up.
DeleteTrying to catch up with euro indexes which looks like forming waves dividing into three (and been like that for quite some time ~5months in CAC40, France).
ReplyDeleteanyways c-wave up to complete exp flat would suit me well for spx
TJ,
ReplyDeleteThank you for an absolute master class in real-time wave counting yesterday, it was fun to watch.
welcome. TJ.
DeleteES daily: approaching 200-day SMA and trading below the lower band again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uODQWidJ/
TJ
still waiting to see if this is part of a wave 4 or the 1 of a down wave...
ReplyDeleteSeem like few think it could puke here.
ReplyDeleteHmmmm!
Lol! I was definitely doubtful about the bear flag yesterday!
DeleteWondering if this is not a running correction since yesterday's low.
Delete5th wave down in TLT in progress!
ReplyDeleteFive clean waves up off the lows.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been added for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ