Equity prices, as measured by the SPY cash 30-min chart below, made another lower low. This time the lowest low of the prior wave (x) was exceeded lower at the open. Then, the mop up crew came in and tried to close the gap. By the cash close/futures settle they had not. But they still could. We posted a wave label of sub-minuette wave i at today's low. The up wave appear to be some or all of sub-minuette wave ii.
Right as things stand prices went back to the upper parallel trend line of he channel in what looks like three waves. The current retace level is 38.2% and give the number of cash bars in the down wave, it seems quite short in time, too. So, it could go further, or it could form a Flat wave, which could extend the correction in time.
About the only thing one can do is draw in this parallel on an ES 15-minute chart, and monitor the parallel for measurements, and Fibonacci ratios. Right now the two up waves are roughly equal.
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| ES Futures - 15 Minutes - Monitor Parallel |
Also, monitor to see if the parallel is broken to the downside, and is back-tested. If a failure of the back-test occurs, then either a Flat wave is likely in progress to extend the time of the correction or wave iii is in progress.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
ETH (dly) Let's see how this plays out.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_31927e0684d9053e958e6587b8bd9b6f.png
ES futures 30-min seem to indicate a fifth wave pre-open if they can hold on to the gains until cash opens.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Could it also be Z of a triple ZZ?
DeleteOr Y of a double ZZ
DeletePossible, but much less likely without overlaps. TJ
DeleteSee below at 1:10 PM. TJ.
DeleteBB median line reached, acting as resistance so far
ReplyDeleteThe daily BB are squeezed, which usually precedes a big move.
ReplyDeleteSPY 5-min: very, very likely 'five-waves-up'. Presently wedging and possibly diverging on this time frame. Most likely an 'a' wave (degree just for illustration at the moment).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8JtZDUvi/
TJ
what about 0-2 TL breaks for your nested downward count? do they matter this time?
DeleteIt would be a concern above ES 3,922 and something to look at at the time. TJ.
Deleteand then its a flat from 6/29? to recent low?
DeleteDon't quite think so. I have answered your question much more fully in the next day's blog post - which is now available. TJ.
DeleteSPY (0.5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_5ef3b8426be84e43f689305bb8fca056.png
I'm concerned about the flag pole & flag drawn to show 401.50 to 410.50, as if it were drawn at the time. Yet, there is no indication in such a projection that lower lows were to come first. How does PnF work with just 'corrective' waves rather than always making huge projections? TJ.
DeleteThe horizontal measures your reference have an ultimate low of 362.50 (the low of the overall pattern). As long as this is not violated, the measures remain intact. Thus, the measures are still active at this time. Hope this helps.
DeleteSPY - from a pattern perspective only. It remains to be proven, but to date, it is on track.
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/um78c1upxin2kys/Wpattern-overlay.png/file
re: 1:13 pm. No, not helpful *at all*. Drawn as you have them, if drawn at the time, they make the trader 'salivate' from 28 June, thinking those targets are going to come to pass. Meanwhile, 'nothing' for half a month and even a lower low in the mix. Seems pretty misleading to me. TJ.
DeleteUSDEUR (dly)- current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/m9vrs2zv3j9imcx/USDEUR.PNG/file
Oops! Just noticed it failed to overlap.
DeleteAddendum:
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/amjf31of7esh0as/usdeurFP.PNG/file
Of note: I have no DBBO as of yet on (0.25x3)
DeleteES 30-min: next best alternate to 'five-up' comes from futures, not cash, if there is a surprise break today. So far, not a lot of sign of it.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/piula6Rq/
TJ
ES 30-min: looks and feels like a triangle here. Maybe a smaller degree fourth wave before a fifth of ((C)). Could also still be a double-top. Watch for break up or break down from potential triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3qLSjo0e/
TJ
..triangle breakout upward. TJ.
Delete..this is the triangle being referenced, shown in the SPY cash 5-min.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/68OKn8XP/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ