Today made a lower low, and it is not the time to get too fancy. The chart turned negative again, and broke the local channel lower.
 |
| ES Futures - 1 D - Channel Breech |
As the Fibonacci ruler shows, if the current down wave falls below 4,389.00 then it would be longer than the down wave marked with the brown line which is minute wave ((iv)) of the diagonal we drew. That would likely mean 'there is a turn of degree'. Already the current down wave is longer in time than that wave, and this might be another indicator of a degree turn. And clearly, there might be a setup for a head & shoulders top.
One interesting item, not shown, is that price is actually beginning to bend the daily Bollinger Band downward. We haven't seen that for a fair bit. Still, we want to keep our wits about us, and especially in recognition that today was quadruple-witching, we will note that it would be helpful to get price below the 1.618 external retracement shown on the ES 4-Hr chart below, to conclude that a larger flat wave is not occurring.
 |
| ES Futures - 4 Hr - External Retrace Levels |
If the channel breaks significantly to the downside, and price starts printing full 4-Hr candles below the lower parallel trend line, then it is more likely that a third wave of some type is in progress.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Have revised my $MID wave analysis. It now looks like Sep 2nd was the top of the 5th intermediate wave of this primary wave, ((1)) of Cycle III of the current SuperCycle.
ReplyDeleteCongrats to TJ for getting it right the first time.
Link: https://schrts.co/sHJwQUMC
No. sorry wiz .. you simply 'can not' have wave 2 more than 100% of wave 1 (i.e. lower low than wave 1 and below wave '(4)'). It breaks the most basic Elliott Wave rule that wave 2 can not exceed the low of wave 1, and so the drawing is just another cartoon.
DeleteTJ
No. sorry wiz. I'm not posting your 'bigger picture' count because the second wave would be ridiculously short in time compared to the first wave.
DeleteTJ
I know you have it takes less time to go to the start of diagonal. Is that applicable to ED also. Thks
ReplyDeleteit 'only' applies to the 'ending diagonal'; not to the leading diagonal.
DeleteTJ
Re ending diagonals, read:
ReplyDeletehttp://thepatternsite.com/EWDiagTriangle.html
Thanks TJ.
ReplyDeleteIt seems like we're increasingly getting more technical evidence that the top is in. However, I'm still curious if you have a low probability bullish alternative that takes us to another all time high. Having only a bearish count going into Fed meetings has been hazardous to health since the 2008 recession.
Thanks and have a great weekend!
Welcome, and at the risk of having to answer this question repeatedly, the next post discusses it in detail. Yes, this a way higher.
DeleteTJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ