Here are some things we know from the ES 2-Hr chart below. I am only using this time frame for visual chart clarity.
 |
| ES Futures - 2 Hr - What We Know |
Last night, we know there was a lower futures low - and three waves down - that did not appear in cash. Looking at last night in the futures, there is still a way that lower low could fit into a very compressive triangle, and so dashed lines for the triangle are shown. Shown in this way, the ((C)) wave and the ((E)) wave of triangle iv just avoid overlap with wave i.
We know that - as drawn, wave iii is on a peak of the MACD indicator shown. We also know that wave iii is entirely above a line drawn from wave (b) to ii (i.e. from 0 to ii). Then, wave iv cuts off that line. We also know that each wave is on an opposite side of the EMA-34. Further, we know that wave iv alternates well with wave ii because its ((B)) wave goes over the high, and wave ii's does not. Further, wave ii appears to be a sharp, and wave iv appears to be a triangle. We also know that wave iv takes more time than wave ii. Wave ii takes more time than wave i, and wave iv takes more time than wave iii.
Further, we know that wave iii is shorter in price than wave i. So, if we are getting wave v now, then wave v must remain shorter in price than wave iii.
We don't know how wave v will end. We don't know if it will impulse or diagonal. Today, the internal down wave was greater than 62%. It was a funky down wave and very hard to count. But, we also know that price travel below 4,430 in the futures makes a diagonal v a much more difficult proposition.
We would also expect wave v - wherever it finishes - to diverge on the MACD. But, right now the MACD is pointing up until it doesn't. That is all.
Have a good start to your evening. And may your third waves (ahem) never be the shortest.
TJ
Courtesy of Stockcharts, Daily Five -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/2iww0zqnx17kz5u/Stockcharts.PNG/file
I notice bearish divergence on the Q's. Using closing prices on RSI peaks. (A) closed little lower AO diverged the highs into my label (B). Are we going to make a (C) down below the balance line taking the AO below 0?
ReplyDeleteGW your much more advanced any advice?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ocepuKjJ/
I would see your B RSI peak (and the prior 26th peak) as a reg hidden div (negative). This is because this divergence is below a higher RSI reading prior. I would be looking for RSI to shoot for the 40 level (or lower). I cant say where the AO would end up should RSI 40 level be reached, but it would appear likely. If/when the 50 level is reached, I would be watching closely. This is an area that most tend to fail if they do (they can fail earlier, but odds favor midline area). That's been my experience anyway. :o) fwiw.
DeleteHere's what I see on the Qs -
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/3xcvz0f9ip8lulx/Qs.PNG/file
Thanks GW, always good. I've been noticing a lack of participation and leadership by some of the big names lately too.
DeleteWatch the market action in the Q's around the numbers derived from the January Range (25.14), multiplied by Fib numbers or multiples of 1 (100%) and added to the January high:
2 = 380.60 {2nd overhead}
1.618 = 371.00 {1st overhead, above the 369.91 hi on 8/5}
1.382 = 365.06 {support today, and a few turns earlier}
1.236 = 361.39
Thoughts on BTC (2day) - [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/c0nr8a5k30m9upd/BTC.PNG/file
NQ daily .. lower low day. ES possible triangle C wave down. Must hold the prior lows.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Good morning all. ES 15-min. Possible triangle, diagonal (or lastly top) at this location. It is possible for it to break down once to make a larger triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Lt7qWpJJ/
TJ
..triangle indeed appears to have broken down once. Not allowed below prior low.
DeleteTJ
Hrly - current look -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/4zqngm6ln4rvwpa/Hrly12.PNG/file
Cash SPY 15-min: while it does not show last night's high, it is possible to consider a second wave down - because the new ((2)) would not be longer in price or time than wave iv.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FMoPXYuw/
There is also a pretty clear invalidation level in cash.
TJ
SPY 15-min: hammer candle and HH candle; would be good to see higher close confirming candle.
DeleteTJ
SPY 15-min; higher close confirming candle.
DeleteTJ
Courtesy of MFP - Gold & Real Rates -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/if33bjcbd8ueq18/GoldandRealRates.PNG/file
Interesting!
DeleteTJ
It's true that gold has historically been inverse correlated to real yields, however, that flipped during the last 10 weeks. Real yields were negative and got more negative as gold declined from 1919 down to 1678.
DeleteAlso, most analysts use the 10yr real yield, which is calculated by taking the 10yr constant rate and subtracting the 10yr breakeven inflation rate.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
SPY 3-min: very short term. There is a new high in SPY, so possible to draw a tentative channel for the third wave. The channel could break down 'once' if the flat wishes to become longer in price and time.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pVPqV2XC/
Right now the correction is under 38% which means wave (3) would 'likely' be shorter than wave (1). A longer correction in price & time could fix that.
TJ
SPY 3-min: don't know for sure, but it's getting very overlappy and might be a triangle 4 within (3), up.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fhQMgyYP/
TJ
..just saying .. that 'can' be the whole wedge for wave micro ((3)), and now in micro ((4)) which should not overlap.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DQGUurfP/
TJ
SPY 15-min: backing-off to the fifteen minute chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NCeNSVOa/
Remember, wave ((4))'s can exceed the high as a triangle or flat. Alternate labeling is for a diagonal.
TJ
ES 2-Hr .. going back to the ES 2-Hr chart: using the 'max possible' wave lengths for the impulse, the most I can get out of the ES for this wave is 4,466, as follows.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/RA9zr4QO/
And 0.618 is at 4,450. The way to get to 4,466 is if today's waves are 'sub-waves' of ((3)). This looks 'possible' from the 2-hr chart, but I have to work that out yet.
TJ
(fyi) - ES tags 4,450.00
DeleteTJ
Nice call on the new high.
ReplyDeletethx!
DeleteHi Trader Joe,
ReplyDeleteI appreciate all your hard work and dedication.
Long time fan.
Just wanted to bring to your attention the level of 35693 in the Dow.
It has been on my chart for a long time and it is fast approaching.
I have found with these levels it acts as a magnet and repels just as well.
Working from the 1974 Low ( 570.01) to the Jan 2000 high 11758.28), and extending by Pi (35693)
I have also observed the 02 & 09 low was at the 0.618 level of this range.
Regards PS
I did confirm that (11,758 - 570) = 11,188 and 11,188 x 3.14159 = 35,160 and 35,160 + 570 = 35,730; which is fairly close.
DeleteTJ
Hrly - update -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/9q8e0ugmxejhhum/hrlyu.PNG/file
So, taking away the bars for a minute to concentrate on wave form, I think today's up waves can be counted as sub-waves of ((3)) in the following manner,
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KP4WvO3K/
The 0 - (2) trend line is respected, wave (4) is a 'running wave' for alternation and it fits the personality of a third wave, and all of wave (5) is above a line from (2) to (4).
'Possibly' the overnight wave will be another triangle?
TJ
A new post is started for the next day. Comments remain on moderation.
ReplyDeleteTJ