No one else is counting this way. I kind of like that. Looks like we are into a bit of a throw-over. Just remember that minute ((v)) can not be longer in price than minute ((iii)).
Divergence with the advance-decline line is getting fairly prominent. Even so, slight new highs are still possible. Today, prices got up to the upper daily Bollinger Band, and traded over them. Price is still above the 18-day SMA so the daily bias is up, and the daily slow stochastic is still embedded. The daily wave fractal points are pretty clear and have been numbered or lettered.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Good morning all. ES 30-min. So far, price has gone down to the 62% retrace level. It broke the first down (red) fractal back on the poorer than expected retail sales, then put in an outside candle, up.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rH1mmQrf/
It is possible price will, triangle further down to 78%, or will fail. It is also possible that it will further impulse higher. Keeping an eye on those fractals will be important this morning.
TJ
fyi - 78% is at about 4,440.
Deletefyi - second down (red) fractal back has been exceeded lower.
Delete..chart update ..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/s8SwrUi2/
TJ
..there is 78%; will it fail or will it hold?
DeleteTJ
..chart update .. triangle upwards (perhaps waiting on FED meeting) certainly plausible.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4XkwN6xF/
TJ
..low of 78% bar exceeded lower. Failure was just put on the table. Not certain, of course.
DeleteTJ
..the high of the outside candle up, is now a valid up (green) fractal at this time frame.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/klVs7voF/
TJ
Joe is big,tank you for your analisi elliott wave
ReplyDeletewelcome, fabio..
DeleteYou think that is possibile break the top 4481 of yesterday?
ReplyDelete...'possible' ..perhaps as a fifth wave diagonal of ((c)) of C. But, it does not matter what I think. Let the green and red fractals explain the situation to you.
DeleteTJ
Tank you, excuse what rappresent fractal?
Deletesmall green triangles above price bar; small red triangles below price bar.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: There is now a valid down (red) fractal at this morning's low. See chart below. Red triangle added at the low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uMme7l8O/
For example, this means that if a 'buy' is taken above an up (green) fractal, and above the blue moving average (EMA-34), then the risk is all the way down to the low.
The two prior down (red) fractals that were already defeated lower are now irrelevant and have been removed.
The blue moving average is still pointing down at this time. And the current direction is lower until that average flattens or turns up.
TJ
..the above is not trading or investment advice .. just an example.
DeleteTJ
Tank you so much
DeleteES 30-min: now below first down (red) fractal back. Direction still lower until it isn't.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min; now below second down (red) fractal back. This is a failure swing 'of some type'. Direction is still lower until it isn't.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES Daily - Keep an eye on the daily slow stochastic. It is 'currently' below 79. Let's see if it finishes the day that way. Also. The 18-day SMA is located at 4,419. So be on the watch for that.
ReplyDeleteTJ
If prezzo < 4419 and stocastico < di 79 of close, short selling is must?
DeleteES 30-min: here is the update showing the second fractal back has been exceeded lower. This is the failure swing. Price is still below the moving average. A new up (green) fractal has been added at 4454 as of noon. Note that the daily S2 pivot, is also coincident with the 18-day SMA.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MoPQL36A/
Maybe they want to get back to 'the line in the sand' for the FED tomorrow.
TJ
@Fabio .. what you do with your account is up to you. Please do not ask me for trading or investment advice. In yesterday's video, and in my recap of Ira's guidelines for trading, I am only providing what one broker thinks is the correct strategy. Once again, his guidelines are at the link below.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2015/11/paraphrase-of-ira-epsteins-rules-for.html
I make no claims for the profitability of his guidelines. But I have watched them for a very, very long time ;)
TJ
ES 30-min; price hits 18-day SMA, and S2 daily pivot.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Here is (delayed) chart update. No new fractals have formed yet. Price has gotten as low as 4,412. The 4,412 level overlaps the tops of waves from 25 JUL. I will show that 4-Hr chart in a moment.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZU7XJTQU/
TJ
ES 4-Hr: here is the chart showing overlaps back to 25 Jul.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qkwtIOji/
It also shows the breakdown of the local channel - which can certainly be back-tested.
TJ
Now, here's the tough part. The wave labels a/i, b/ii, and c/iii are to be considered absolutely equivalent until they are not. Right now c/iii is marginally longer than a/i. The question is whether a fourth & fifth wave form properly in the SPY.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ymhgNPAF/
If a fourth wave does form properly, and does not overlap a/i, then, being so close in relationship it is 'possible' a fifth wave could be the extended wave in the sequence. But, that is putting the cart before the horse.
First is to see if an alternating fourth wave forms, and then price makes a lower low.
TJ
Retesting break of 16th low.
ReplyDeleteIn SPY .. 50% x c/iii is the practical limit for iv. If a higher wave is made then one needs to consider maybe the market is not impulsing, or could only do so if iv is a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/irODQbhn/
TJ
SPY .. now up over 50%; a,b,c are the correct labels.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Mftf6Czx/
TJ
a b c of downward diagonal? Or of larger expanded flat back to ATH? Thoughts?
Delete@tva .. depends on the FED tomorrow, and whether there will be three-waves-up or five. I try not to stand in the way of a trillion here or a trillion there. I can patiently wait a day. Looking at a five-minute chart, there 'may' be a leading diagonal forming, if it completes properly. Those are 'often' (not always) 'A' waves.
DeleteTJ
Tj- Spx cash it cant be 1-2 , i-ii right?
DeleteBecause ii price advance is lot more than 2
am I right?
@fibo .. You GOT it! Yipee!
DeleteTJ
Thanks Sir- Learnt a lot from you.
ReplyDeleteyw..!
DeleteSPY 1-min; not for sure, but plausible.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/L4cwQAJM/
TJ
SPY cash and futures got the higher high - by ticks.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/J2dxykDg/
TJ
Diagonal is leading 'in some way' as there is a higher high after it. And the recent up wave is too long for a larger third wave. Might be the 'b' wave of a flat going into the cash close.
DeleteTJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ