Friday, August 13, 2021

'Possible' to Count an Impulse in SPY

This is just to say, the count works right now in SPY cash - as a fourth wave triangle (4) that alternates well with the flat wave (2).


Each wave is on an opposite side of the EMA-34 in this 10-minute time-frame, now with about 117 candles on the chart. There is still some possibility that the (4) wave can extend lower in the Sunday overnight and into Monday to make an expanded flat for a deeper fourth wave. But it is not required. It is also possible for wave (5) to put on a few more points.

Stocks ended the week at the high, and came within +/- 2 points of the upper daily Bollinger Band. Trading during the session was very gap filled in the SPY, indicative of light volume until the closing candle. Price is over the 18-day SMA (so the bias remains up), and the daily slow stochastic is still embedded.

Meanwhile, the DOW did not end on its high. The NQ futures did not end on an all time high. The preliminary figures for the NYSE have about 1,568 advancing stocks and 1,721 declining stocks, and today was quite whippy. It's bucking like a bronco, but I think we haven't seen anything yet.

 

I'll leave you with one final thought for today. It is Ira Epstein's Financial video from last night. Listen carefully from about three minutes to about six minutes in where Ira says about the Dow, "I think pro's are taking a substantial amount off their positions". Like it or not, Ira is an insider. He's been in the industry for years. He has contacts and hears what people are doing and how they work. Again, he doesn't recommend shorts (in futures) above the 18-day SMA. Neither does he recommend new longs above an upper daily Bollinger Band.

The above is not trading or investment advice, just a brief recap (in his own words) of what one broker thinks.

Have an excellent start to the evening and to the weekend.

TraderJoe

35 comments:

  1. https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1426306493591265288

    ReplyDelete
  2. QQQ/SPY - Redux? -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/brmd6a90ke5vmbd/qqq-spy.PNG/file

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  3. Sectors - RM & CRS -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/c9duucm9z0hufb4/sectors.PNG/file

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  4. A very interesting discussion on rates/gold/stocks related to Fed. I found the comments about keeping real rates negative especially intriguing. You can come to your own conclusion(s) - [if interested]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHH6CZo1JnA

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    Replies
    1. 👍 great info. I agree the fed is trapped. Lower rates for longer. The next depression we will probably see negative rates.

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  5. Gold/SPX (yrly) - Think of this as a one decision chart.
    Food for thought [if interested] -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/9u3xqyqk9tcwtep/GoldSPX_Yrly.PNG/file

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  6. Marshallian K indicator - caution (fwiw) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/dszsw44m8d21rin/Marshallian_K.PNG/file

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  7. XHB (wkly) - early signs -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/b1vaop469awrzdb/Weakening.PNG/file

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  8. Hrly - when trading resumes -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/n05702ml7tvpbx1/HrlySun.PNG/file

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    Replies
    1. Currently trying to find support at the 50ma.

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  9. ES hourly - here's the opening, so far.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ddK7XXzR/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..the failure did occur. It coincided with the timing of Japanese GDP Deflator showing more deflation than expected. Consensus was for -0.4% inflation. When it came in, it was -0.81% (with GDP itself about level at 0.3% growth).

      TJ

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    2. Yep. Flagging action in futures could spell trouble for bulls...

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    3. Sorry. It was China retail sales up +8.5% vs 11.5% expected. And China Industrial Production was +6.4% vs +7.8% expected.

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  10. Hrly (preopen) - current look

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/sf8x083v2rjipc1/Hrlypreopen.PNG/file

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  11. Courtesy of SentimenTrader -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/tg7pbfs93cou5g5/VIX.PNG/file

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  12. SPY 15-min: There is now clearly downward overlap.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZWAfdc6Z/

    TJ

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  13. ES 15-min: so far, looking over the overnight waves, there is a 1.618 wave down. But there is also a very good possibility of an interior expanding triangle, and then a diagonal. So, there may only be three-waves-lower to this point.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/g2pt8u3x/

    The alternate is three waves of an impulse, if the expanding triangle is really w-x-y, but then the diagonal would likely be out of place.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ..currently the down wave fits in a the brown parallel as follows.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/RVTQMBGD/

      TJ

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    2. TJ - your comment "the alternate is three waves of an impulse". Is that allowed given there's an overlap of 1 and 4 within that expanding diagonal?

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    3. ..no longer .. and that was the reason I said, "the diagonal would likely be out of place" there. I just wanted to make sure there weren't lower lows, first, before the correction up got under way.

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  14. https://www.tradingview.com/x/DTCn7Bb6/

    TQQQ Daily chart with comments.

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    Replies
    1. TQQQ - some add'l observations - (still iffy)

      https://www.mediafire.com/view/a1dzcl3ni5hlbwt/TQQQgbox.PNG/file

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  15. Hrly - very near 90% retrace, testing RSI 60 level.

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  16. Hrly - update (observations) -

    https://www.mediafire.com/view/bn005mbdouni8hp/HrlyNH.PNG/file

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    Replies
    1. Note: the selling climax candle can be seen as effort, no result.

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  17. Declining volume (now below avg) on move up. Watching for possible 2B should reversal with volume incr occur.

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  18. Just fyi - preliminary NYSE adv/dec = 1,200 / 2,100
    TJ

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  19. Just fyi - ES hits & goes over upper daily Bollinger Band (hint: see Ira video above).

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  20. Have reached a 1.272 ext. retrace (currently).

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  21. In spite of new high, SPX/VIX ratio has dropped nearly 4%.

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  22. Just fyi - preliminary Nasdaq adv/dec = 1,321 / 3,114 NH = 107 NL = 275
    preliminary NYSE adv/dec = 1,164 / 2,175 NH = 140 NL = 78

    TJ

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  23. A new post is started for the next day. Comments remain on moderation. Please be patient.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete