ES daily futures made higher overnight highs. During the cash session the SPY eventually followed suit. The futures appear to have a gap up but from the hourly charts that may not be the case. Regardless, this was the second day that futures hit the upper daily Bollinger Band, then backed down a tad.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Over-bought Doji |
They are doing this with the daily slow stochastic only in over-bought territory, not with it embedded at this time. Today's narrow-range candle formed a doji. And marginal higher highs can still result. From a wave-count perspective, the count is "near-full". But, price is over the 18-day SMA, and therefore the price bias is still up. Yet, the swing-line indicator is technically neutral with a lower low and a higher high. This is definitely mixed signals, and, as you probably remember, Ira does not recommend buying new longs over an upper daily Bollinger Band - especially without an embedded reading. (This is not trading or investment advice; just a paraphrase of what one broker teaches on-line.)
And, once again, today's higher high diverges from the daily Elliott Wave Oscillator - likely indicating the fifth wave. The first item of significance would be trading back below the 18-day SMA. The next would be taking out this month's low.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
This chart was added for information after the close. The put-call ratio took a real dive today.
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| Put/Call Ratio - Daily - Lots of Calls Bought |
TraderJoe
House passed $3.5 Trillion budget blueprint and other infrastructure items. This will have to be worked on with the Senate via budget reconciliation.
ReplyDeleteTJ
@GW..pls repost. Comment inadvertently deleted.
ReplyDeleteTJ, could you show a diagram that displays where we are in the fifth wave within the bigger picture. When you said "indicates we are in a fifth wave...." I went back to several diagrams, because I was still looking for a fourth in yesterdays 30 min chart, so now I'm a little lost at which degree fifth you were referring to...
ReplyDeleteRefers to minute ((v)) in yesterday's post.
DeleteThis chart.
TJ
thank you
DeleteThanks.
ReplyDelete4hr Gold - observations -
https://www.mediafire.com/view/gq1j2dj304ptlay/4hrgold.PNG/file
Courtesy of EWI -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/opla5466aowzd7u/divergence.PNG/file
An additional chart was added to the post above after the close.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Hi tj why are you not looking at ed from 20th june. This is now the 5th wave up of the ed. Before the ed we had expanded flat to start ed from 20 june in ES. Thkz
ReplyDelete..because the third wave of that diagonal is 'longer in time' at 19 days than the first wave, which was 16 days. That is not 'typical' of a contracting diagonal. Is it 'possible', yes. But, as I have here on many occasions, the parameter that seems to get most ignored is 'time'.
DeleteTJ
EurUsd (wkly) - Measured move ?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/0p3e9rxy0aqz3un/eurusd.PNG/file
ES 30-min: marginal new higher high (after 'possible' triangle).
ReplyDeleteTJ
Here is a chart of the plausible triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QGBDQsSM/
TJ
ES 60-min: here is the hourly view.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9tATigvQ/
TJ
Margin Dept -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/jg82sh8oa4vi663/MD.PNG/file
ES 5-min, within wave micro ((v)) of sub-minuette v there is now a 38% down wave. IF the wave recovers, then submicro (5) = (1) would get price over the top again to about 4,499 - 4,500. IF price does not recover, then there is a 78% up wave, that 'may have' been a truncation.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g27b3vjC/
TJ
Two notes: 1) I was working quickly - chart shows same count at one higher degree in error. Same Concept. 2) Daily R1 pivot was at that 38% level. Daily R2 pivot is at about the ~4,499.25 level.
DeleteTJ
ES has the higher high. No truncation.
DeleteTJ
ES 5-min; chart showing the higher high before tapering off.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5rVaQ9MA/
TJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ