Today is the second daily close in which the daily slow stochastic can begin to qualify for embedded status. Both of the red line (%K) and blue line (%D) of the slow stochastic in the indicator panel of the chart below are over the 80 level for the second day in-a-row.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Stochastic Still Overbought |
According to Ira's analysis, the indicator usually just swings from over-sold to over-bought and back again without embedding. Clearly from the chart - in strong up trends - embedding might be expected. And that is certainly what we've had - a strong up trend.
In the last two days we have warned that the so-called Smart Money - the brokers, bankers, mutual fund and hedge fund managers that have a LOT more money at their disposal than you and I do - would likely lighten up at the upper daily Bollinger Band. That appears to be the case, and prices backed off, closing near their lows.
Tomorrow is Fed Chair Powell's virtual Jackson Hole Symposium speech around 10 AM. Will he embed the slow stochastic? Will the market let him. We must wait and see.
Have an excellent start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Today, stocks closed near their lows.
Could we have just finished iii down on the diagonal with the lower low, or are we in v down?
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can tell, we have just finished five-down as a diagonal in the ES futures. SPY on the other hand may have the 'five-down- shown earlier and might make a 'flat' second wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HXv2dr8P/
TJ
SPY (dly) - several observations -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/hqox1q3qc5x9uxj/spy.PNG/file
Addendum - https://www.mediafire.com/view/pgl5djn8urca022/Target.PNG/file
DeleteShort Interest % - Courtesy of Goldman Sachs -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/gldb3o4y1lr7cm4/Short_Interest_%2525.PNG/file
Good morning all. ES 30-min. As was shown last night the potential diagonal in the ES futures finished with near-perfect form. Now the only question seems to be whether there is a new high after it or not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iby9Ub9G/
If there is a new all-time high after the diagonal, then somehow it was the end of a very long and protracted fourth wave of the prior wave set. One would think if that would have been the case, then the last wave of the diagonal 'might' have failed.
Since the last wave of the diagonal did NOT fail, then it also qualifies to be a Leading Diagonal. If it is a Leading Diagonal, then price 'can' do a deep retrace - but does not have to - and it would have to remain below the prior high.
Prior fractals are shown.
TJ
Reminder: Powell speech at the top of the next hour.
DeleteMcClellan article -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/a-d_lines_troubling_divergence/
ES futures 30-min: up (green) fractal back has been taken out higher.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min: price has gone over the 4,498.00 high. Diagonal was 'ending' not leading.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min: FED Chair Powell creates 1.618 wave, upward. Draw new channel as below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dmjU5c9H/
TJ
ES 30-min: all up (green) fractals have been exceeded higher. There are 'no' up (green) fractals now on the chart. Also, note R2 daily pivot is around the 4,506 level.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/L6oqPlfh/
TJ
fyi only .. ES touches R2 ..probably all of this is wave three..
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aIlUZzOV/
TJ
Is it wave 3 of w5?
ReplyDeleteThat started at 4350?
Thanks
It is likely this wave. Your numbering makes no sense .. 3 of 5. You really need to start learning about wave degrees.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bgp8UMX6/
Try! It doesn't hurt.
TJ
you said"fyi only .. ES touches R2 ..probably all of this is wave three"
DeletePreviously we were in 5th of C according to your charts from last week. So thats what my question pertained to.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bgp8UMX6/
Deleteyes exactly this vth.
@fibo .. c'mon, man; don't you get it? You used the symbols 3 and 5, and not v ? Do I really have to explain this? All this does is take up my time, needlessly.
DeleteTJ
I am/was busy "trading" and not making beautiful charts or its labels. So it the labelling got ommitted.
Delete..wow .. ok. See if any more of your questions get answered here.
DeleteTJ
bro - I have been trading longer than your blog exists, And you are going to end up changing these labels anyways at spx 5000- If you are so super edgie on your labels then lets bring out our trading accounts here in the public? So chill for a minute here.
DeleteI respect you for your age so dont take undue advantage and thrashing people for writting 5 instead of v.
..then why'd ya ask?? No further questions will be answered.
DeleteTJ
15min cfd suggests a change of direction -
ReplyDeleteES 30-min outside candle, lower. Requires confirming candle lower.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES (wkly/dly) A potential dilemma in time -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/89ntuhxsrqf5gvq/ES.PNG/file
On the daily ES I have (W) at 114 days and C of (Y) at 108 if counted from March 25, using triangle correction.
DeleteMy chart on the right points out what happens if the triangle for B ends at Mar 25 low (b). I believe that disrupts the C leg and negates the diagonal.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2021/08/degree-labeling-may-have-done-it-again.html
DeleteFrom TJ's chart, note the weekly bar he references regarding a triangle. He's not using the Mar 25th low. Doing so would eliminate the (a) and (b) of the diagonal's first leg up (3 waves). That would leave only (c) which is five waves, not 3.
Hmm I had thought his A and B in the picture reflect the smaller degree expanded flat that makes up B wave, with the mentioned alt B wave being the triangle that was not labeled to Mar 25. Feb 1 to Mar 25 being the triangle. TJ, clarification?
DeletePlease see the next post.
DeleteTJ
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCourtesy of EWI - Credit Spread -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/dqx1ln4evnstqp2/creditspread.PNG/file
IXIC/SPX (wkly) - This looks interesting -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/o20z6lf7k2vtdu3/ixicspx.PNG/file
https://schrts.co/hJCShjtH
DeleteBig divergence on A/D line too
SPY (dly) Focus on July forward -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/lbj1vydkzalmni0/spyd.PNG/file
(Note that this stretch of price matches up with the drop in credit spread
shown in the EWI chart above)
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ