For the second time in two months (granted the month is not over), the Dow Jones Industrial Average, could not yet make a new high. Probably it needs to so that it could truly be said to diverge from the Dow Jones Transportation Average. We have been saying for weeks this could happen. It just hasn't .. yet.
Meanwhile, back at the S&P, the ES futures had no trouble making a new all-time high, and hitting their upper daily Bollinger Band. The count on the one-hour futures remains in a wedge. The up move last night and today pushed out the upper wedge line, a bit.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Wedge |
If the markets were never opened again, I'd have to say there were only three waves up to this point from the low. The count remains troubling because the amount of retrace at that lowest valley in the middle of the Elliott Wave Oscillator was only a scant 14.2%. Yet, there it is. There isn't a good reason yet why a fourth and fifth wave, up, couldn't form for the minuet a wave of the larger diagonal. Again, this might occur with the Dow making that higher high or closer to it. But there are other options.
There was a doji hourly candle to close the cash session, but there is still no power in the down waves. That could change. Again, an impulsive break of the lower wedge line, followed by a back-test and failure would be a first sign. That is not on the charts yet, price is over the 18-day SMA and the Elliott Wave Oscillator is currently rising, so the daily bias remains up until something different appears on the charts.
Have a good start to the evening, and to the weekend. Comments remain on moderation for the same reasons as before.
TraderJoe
Would you say tbat russell is making a triangle also. So some more highs left in markets.
ReplyDeleteTriangles are not 'supposed to' have such bad proportions. 90% retrace waves in each direction? Maybe it's a flat or a truncation near the high. Not ruling out higher highs.
DeleteSo, are you saying the Dow won't or can't make another high?
ReplyDeleteDJT (2 day) - Open for discussion -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/8r1otsnb6f6ls26/DJT.PNG/file
pretty sure the A-I generated count is wrong at the bottom because i is longer in price than (i) .. Look for an expanding diagonal count at the bottom instead.
DeleteTJ
Remarkable to ne how few people are oaying any attention yo the very obvious larger patterns in many indices, namely massive mega-phones, most many years in the making. I thought for awhile my expectation that the overhead RN would be a magnet was incorrect owing to mixed signals ftom VIX but both DJIA and SPX hit those levels on Friday. I have to say I remain a bit skeptical about the bullish case. The price action continues to be imo.primatily liquidity dtiven and not necessarily a reflection of the state of the economy. While I enjoyed the run 35K and 4.4K, I find this market a bit un-settling as I think a great reckoning is coming. I'm back on the sidelines for the time being.
ReplyDeleteRepost - deleted in error -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/0v70nadqui3cmum/Both.PNG/file
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteyou miss the point
ReplyDeletejohnny is saying that you dont understand dow theory
and he is correct...because he does
just as you dont know what a vix buy signal is by your ignorant response to my post
your B wave nonsense is obviously wrong
ReplyDeletebut you cant admit that Tony Caldaro was correct all along
and you have been wrong for months
The DOW just closed over 35K for the first time in history. Yesterday's close was an all-time high close. Don't think the DOW needs any help..!
ReplyDelete