BITCOIN Special

I have for the longest time refused to provide an analysis of Bitcoin for one reason - because I couldn't find a data set that was consistent with degree labeling. Today, I found such a dataset and am therefore providing this preliminary analysis that meets degree labeling criteria. Here is the weekly chart of BTCUSD with log scale.

BTCUSD - Weekly - Close (Log Scale)

When you look at this analysis you may not see what I see, so I will take you through it. Bitcoin was invented in 2009; it's earliest price history is difficult to determine from data that can be charted. After much trouble, I was able to pull up this data set of price and volume. So, here's what I see on the chart. (Remember, in text double parenthesis = circle; or ((1)) = circle-1 on the graphic).

1. Wave Primary ((1)) is the introduction phase; given a birthday in 2009, this 5-year period to 2014 is reasonable. Volume grew a bit during the period, as expected.
2. Wave Primary ((2)) may be either a Flat, or a zigzag. It is hard to tell without further exploration of that wave in detail. As charted, however, it is longer in 'time' that what is charted for wave Primary ((1)). That makes it a realistic second wave. There is a big down volume spike in the last third of the wave.
3. Wave Primary ((3)) is the 'wide recognition' phase. This is the phase in which wave volume rises dramatically. Notice the rise in the 50-period average of volume. It is the phase in which the formal exchanges adopt the futures contract, there is widespread coverage of it in newspapers and the financial media.
4. Wave Primary ((4)) may be a more complicated sharp, or it might even be a triangle. Again, hard to tell without more investigation into this wave. Still, at least on a closing basis, there is no overlap with wave Primary ((1)), which is required for an impulse count. Those who have not investigated the long term price structure may inadvertently place Primary wave ((2)) at this location or at the early 2019 low. Degree labeling argues against that. Wave Primary ((4)) is as long in time as was Primary ((3)), as drawn. Again, this is excellent wave proportion. It contacts the lower boundary of the logarithmic parallel up channel. Average volume falls off noticeably indicating the correction.
5. Wave Primary ((5)) is the mania phase where a) everyone tries to count it, b) every retail trader tries to trade it, and c) where Bitcoin millionaire hopefuls jump on board. But, look at the volume. It is dropping off drastically, and the volume is providing an obvious non-confirmation signal. Clearly, using log scale, wave ((5)) very nearly equals wave ((1)) in length.

So, there you have it. That is how I see the larger degree labels being logical on Bitcoin. You can now see how each of the sub-divisions of wave Primary ((3)) are shorter than all of Primary ((1)) on a log scale. So, it makes perfect degree sense. Can Bitcoin go higher? It sure can. If it's at $55,000 now can it go to $60,000 or even $100,000 on this chart? Nothing in the wave structure rules it out, BUT, often (not always) some Elliott Waves end near the mid-line of the price channel: near where we are now.

Still, I have no interest at all in following the contract or the coin. One reason is that there are multiple of them now, as the CME looks to introduce futures contracts on Ethereum (called Ether contracts). If you are interested in that story, you can read it at this LINK. I hope some information in this post has been helpful.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe