Sunday, August 4, 2019

Weekend Video Update (40/60)

This is the third post this weekend. If you have not reviewed the previous two, you may wish to review them first. Again, to be considerate of your time and mine, this video is limited to about seven (7) minutes.



Thanks very much for watching, and have a good rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe

54 comments:

  1. Thank you very much for your detailed analysis.

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    1. Thanks for weekend update. Crystal clear!

      Enjoy rest of Sunday.

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    2. TJ .. I had to delete your post about 'trading plans'. I specifically have said many times that this site is primarily about wave-counting only. I do not want it hi-jacked in favor of individual trades, and plans, and who is the best trader, etc. I have included some of Ira's information for those thirsty for such, but that's it. Please honor this request or I am going to have to go to a 'moderated' blog only. That means all comments would be delayed until the moderator approves them. There hasn't been any need for that so far. Most people respect the purpose. Please do, too.

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    3. understood. I see how it can open up a whole new can of worms and distractions away from wave-counting.

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  2. Thanks for all your efforts .I look forward to all your comments.

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  3. Well. That didn't take long: down -32 to 2,900 in the after hours.

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  4. Thanks video very helpful at this moment!
    If top is in I was thinking about the significance of Russell 2000 not reaching 90% level from ath and therefore can’t do a flat.
    What’s the alternates? Wave 3 down in bigger diagonal From 1600?

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    1. The way I see it is, world indices like Nikkei, Dax, China are doing the 'orthodox' wave counts, and are very useful in spotting the change in trends because they are easier to count. P5 major top was made in 2018. The main thing I care about is if orthodox indicies have completed their corrective moves from Dec lows to give me the right timing.

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  5. The ES futures now have a relationship of iii / c > 1.618 x i / a. See chart, below. I say iii / c because the down count 'could' be (w)-(x)-(y) as a flat, as well as (a)-(b)-(c).

    https://invst.ly/bjjh4

    Since none of this is in cash, it remains to be seen if a fourth and fifth wave form properly using the channel shown as a rough guide.

    TJ

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  6. S&P500 Cash is now in contact with the daily up trend line and is testing it. GOLD appears to have completed it's larger triangle and is now in the thrust out of the triangle.

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    1. Does an impulse such as this work for cash? It's a 15min chart, about 150 candles, EWO hit just above 0 at wave 4. Wave 5 is about 100% of wave 1 and wave 3 is not the shortest.

      https://imgur.com/Z22bjf1

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    2. TJ, that's a good looking chart. Lines up with EWO perfectly. Is there suffient alternation between 2 and 4? Also a (5,35,9) MACD does not show a 5th wave divergence. May be we're looking at a 1,2 1,2?

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    3. Probably can't be a 1 2 i ii because wave i is longer than wave 1 and creates a degree violation.

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    4. if what I highlighted is a completed impulse, then it's just a matter of whether it's wave 1 or a C. If C then as Joe outlined in the video, we'd likely have another impulse up which takes us to higher highs (allowed to truncate).

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    5. Thanks. Degree violations always trip me up.

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  7. Any chance this might be the C wave of the (X) wave that started 1/5 as a expanded/running flat? It would ”fit” better with sentiment etc..

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  8. Couldn't wait to unload today. Biggest first hour volume of the year. I have grave reservations about new ATHs anytime soon. Right now if we can go back to the intraday bounce highs for a flat I would say that is good alternation in futures and I would be counting the flat as 4 of (v). That means one more fresh low still to come. 2nd option is 5 down complete. 3rd option … look out below.

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    1. YM and ES both made fresh LODs. ES "passes" as 5 down on that last move lower but YM does not. So quite possible the LOD was a "b wave" of an expanded flat. Thus 5 waves up for the "c wave" of the flat back towards the 2877 region is still plausible.

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    2. Too far for an expanded flat now. Best case scenario is now 5 of (v).

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    3. On the DOW daily RSI 5 is now lower than December 2018.

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  9. Since there has been no update for sometime on the short term count from ET, I thought I'd post a fairly simple view of the SPX cash. "Daily up trend line" has been broken and it is approaching 61.8 fib retracement (2843) of June low - my trendlines are at approximately that level - let's see if there is a short term bounce before more selling continues. Wave iii of (iii) appears to be under way, and wave iii is also approaching equality target with wave i at the same level 2843 approx.
    LINK - https://imgur.com/Cn6qqKp

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    1. That's the right view at this time, as far as I can tell.

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    2. ..by that I mean broken daily trend line and 62% Fib.

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  10. Here is just a number to keep in your 'back pocket'. Below 2,795 this wave would become longer than the prior down-wave. And anyone looking to claim that this was a weekly ending diagonal would not be able to do so (legally, that is according to the 'rules'). People claim a lot of 'stuff'.

    https://invst.ly/bjvrx

    TJ

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  11. Still 40% chance Wave B has topped at 3,035?

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    1. What do you think the put-call ratio will be today?

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  12. Here is another number to have a look at. There is now a 2.618 relationship.

    https://invst.ly/bjwfw

    TJ

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  13. At present, this would be the third day the daily S&P 500 closed outside the lower bb. https://invst.ly/bjx15

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  14. I'm not trying to force a bullish count here, but imho right now small cap makes more sense if it can find support in this area

    https://invst.ly/bjxpr

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    1. Would this be a degree violation ET? That the (X) takes more time than all of the ((A)) down from ATH?

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    2. yes, it most definitely would be.

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    3. Then I believe the current X on spx with terminal location 2728 also is a degree violation..?

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    4. Same with DOW...we need to move X starting point to 1/5 but then we lose the current WXY relationship

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  15. So far, we are 'bouncing' at 2.618; that's all one can call it. Needs to hold the low and make higher highs.

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    1. ES 30-min; outside candle upward. Needs to hold 'till candle close, and be confirmed with a higher high candle.

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    2. ...at 2,841 ES is back to the 62% retrace level from the highs.

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    3. ET, 5 up from the low on the SPX??
      https://imgur.com/jerOLl9

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    4. ES 30-min, outside candle up, held. Now needs to hold the low / make a higher high.

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    5. @KS .. yes, with nice alternation, too.

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    6. This is great team work...i'll be posting more often with the purpose of providing value and learning...

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  16. So, I am not claiming the down wave is over yet. It could be, but it remains to be proven. All I want to do is illustrate how the FLAT-X-ZIGZAG would work for the minute ((b)) wave lower, if downward price movement DID stop today.

    https://invst.ly/bjz21

    The Flat is to minuet (w), the (x) is of equal degree, and the (y) is the three waves down to today's low. Notice that degree is preserved in that the first .a of (y) is shorter than all of (w). Further, .a and a:3 are of the 'same' degree. I just want to use different color symbols.

    TJ

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  17. ES 30-min higher high candle, and higher close candle. Appears to be confirmation.

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  18. Given the power of this move down I would expect another X and then Z down to test the 200 ma for a triple ZZ.

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  19. A new post has been started for the next day.

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  20. The nested 1-2 i-ii count still seems to be a popular call among most EW counts I've seen talked about today around the web.

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