On the second day of Fed Chair Powell's testimony, this time before the Senate Banking Committee, there was no change in the overall count.
|SP500 Cash Index - 2 Hr - In C Wave Up|
Today, we spent most of the time trying to count this next impulse up, and, in particular, counting the long "triangle-shaped" fourth wave as below.
|SP500 Cash Index - 15-min - Finishing Fourth Wave|
It was surmised that because the ((A)) wave of the fourth wave was so deep, and rather quick that a triangle might form. It was also noted where the 0 - ii trend line (from 2 / b) is on this chart, and that the trend line broke. This means we are not likely in a continuing third wave, and are just waiting for the fourth wave to wrap up. The ((C)) wave of a potential triangle made another 78.6% retrace on the ((B)) wave - which was shown live during the day, and then a potential ((D)) wave took off upward back towards the highs.
This wave absolutely does not have to form a triangle. If the market is unusually strong, then the fourth wave could have ended as a truncated flat at the ((C)) wave low. Still, the wave is taking so much time, that the ((E)) wave of a triangle should be allowed to form before a fifth wave higher. In other words the triangle has a 'high likelihood' of forming properly. Now, it's just a question of if it does.
The pundits are already out on T.V. claiming Dow 33,000. That gets my sentiment antenna up, making me say I am "neutral only - and counting towards a top". I will have more to say about that on the weekend.
For now, have a good start to your evening.