Monday, April 8, 2019

ES 4-Hr Still on A Divergence

Given that the Elliott Wave Oscillator on the four-hour chart is still on a divergence - which is even beginning to widen - it is possible the potential divergence will play out as expected, making the minute ((c)) wave.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4-HR - Divergence Widening

The lower trend line remains tentative.

There are technically two forms the diagonal could play out as. The second one has Friday's high as "the" high. But, we think the degree labeling and trend lines work out better on the count shown above. Additional overlap is required for the form of the diagonal shown above.

Have a good start to the day!
TraderJoe

24 comments:

  1. Thank you, Joe! Have an awesome day!

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  2. Gold looks to be un the makings of a diagonal for c of 2.

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    Replies
    1. That last high may only be 1 because it was 2 equal moves.

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  3. when do you have to start an impulse count off the december low?

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    Replies
    1. because we would be in iii of 3 for over a week and looking for 1.618 extensions not topping patterns.

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  4. At the end of the day, the ES/SPX made a marginally higher high, with the 4-hr ES on an even worse divergence. (The Dow did not make a higher high.) In doing so, the potential third wave of the potential diagonal is now 78.6% of the first leg. That is the max to which it can be stretched without taking on the "wrong look" with trend lines that don't converge. Beyond here, I will be publishing the alternate count for the up wave.

    The daily chart since the Dec 24th low has only 69 candles, which is nowhere near what is needed to count using The Eight Fold Path Method. As a result, the upward count would still be corrective in one of two forms.

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  5. This wave also burning lots of time,
    further evidence of the expanded diagonal imho,
    move from 2785 25/3 = c of (v) of expanded diagonal?

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  6. something I am watching

    https://invst.ly/ahrv3

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    Replies
    1. Hi Gerald. A few issues. a) the upper trend line doesn't fit too well. Not impossible, but not the best. b) the (2) covers "too much price" for a prior B wave, and makes it a degree violation, c) you'd have to prove a clear zigzag with (2) and (4). Possible, but the downward counts are muddled.

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  7. I think this looks and works better

    https://invst.ly/ahryv

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    Replies
    1. Still thing the B is a bit short in time, there. Not impossible, but quite short for what follows it.

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  8. thanks for looking at them both joe. I was not sure of that 1 to 3 line rule. have not seen enough of these to see if that is real issue or not.

    there is a potential running triangle but I struggled to get that to work in a count. perhaps you could. 0 for triangle is around first of march. the b is between 3/19 and 3/24. e is what we just shot out of. hard to see any waves in there. looks like straight shot.

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  9. Watch this intraday chart very closely ... it looks like the (e) wave of the triangle just gave way lower. May need a retrace wave yet.

    https://invst.ly/ai1p7

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Now below the blue (c) wave of the triangle. Can still get a retrace for this current down wave. Can impulse lower, or with three waves up can just stall out and make a flat wave. This is where counting gets interesting.

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    2. Chart update below.

      https://invst.ly/ai1y1

      TJ

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  10. ET, Do you have any ideas off the 1284.9 low in gold?

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    Replies
    1. I can finagle an impulse but it is not pretty.

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    2. 1 = 1298.6, 2 = 1288.3, 3 = 1310.5 at 1.618; or A,B,C with C = 1.618 x A.
      Down move is not very fast yet.

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  11. At the end of the day, SP500 made a few new lows; Dow could only eek out a 90% down wave from it's three-wave high - and just barely. I suspect a flat wave.

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  12. A new post has been started for the next day.

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