Thursday, April 18, 2019

Dow Solo new High

The Dow futures made a new high today over the previous day. The Nasdaq 100 futures, the ES E-Mini S&P futures, and the Russell 2000 futures did not. The Dow has some interesting trend lines shown in two versions below on the four-hourly futures chart (YM).

YM (Dow) Futures - 4 Hr - Overlapping Count # 1

The above is one way to see the latest four-hour wave in the Dow, as a completed count. But, we have learned to be very patient with these things and note that the Elliott Wave Oscillator did not get that close to the zero line. And, there is an odd way to count the same chart with a flat wave in it.

YM (Dow) Futures - 4 Hr - Overlapping Count #2

Much of the market has a holiday tomorrow. So, the overlapping count might continue into the evening and weekend in the futures. It's very difficult to say, so please remain flexible, calm and patient as these waves potentially wrap up.

The daily ES futures temporarily lost their embedded daily slow stochastic reading this morning, but by the close regained it. Bottom line is so far, that market has only made a three-wave sequence lower. It does not appear as if the volatility squeeze we wrote about earlier is completely over in all equity markets. The reason for saying this - beyond the Dow's new high - is that the S&P500 cash index (at this time) can still only be counted as three-waves-down from its high, as follows.

S&P500 Cash Index - 15 Minutes - Three Waves Down

This is as messy and as ugly a chart as one will see. There was first the Leading Diagonal shown in blue as (i) - (v) which we called out in real time yesterday. Then, there was a flat wave this morning followed by the impulse c wave, to a new daily low. This makes wave counting exceptionally difficult at the moment, and the interpretation even worse. With only an a-b-c lower, we can not assume that all of the upward movement is over just yet.

Have a good start to the long weekend.
TraderJoe

10 comments:

  1. Thanks,
    I think it’s possible to count the diagonal terminal where your (x) is, so we move (i) of diagonal to a, and (ii) to (w). After diagonal a flat with c at 1.618

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    Replies
    1. No Erik. You are probably going by 'sight' and not by measurement. In that case, wave (iv) of the contracting diagonal would be larger than (ii) of the diagonal which is not allowed by EW 'rules'.

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  2. I challenge anyone to find something wrong with this count.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4eIbECXoAA5GBA.jpg:large

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    Replies
    1. Sub-wave iii of (iii) is larger than (i). This is likely a degree violation. You are claiming that a smaller degree wave is larger than a larger degree wave.

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    2. And, as you have it diagrammed, wave circle-3 ((3)) of black iii is the shortest wave in the sequence .. breaking another key & critical Elliott wave 'rule'. In short, it's just another 'cartoon' drawn without regard to wave measurements, rules and guidelines.

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  3. What's the invalidation point of your perfect count

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  4. hi david
    how much is your target on the sp500 and it will go up again how many days
    thank you

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  5. There is a new post for the next day.

    ReplyDelete