Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Neutral - 2

The hourly S&P500 cash index, the chart of which is below, continued in a mixed picture. It was correct to call yesterday's chart as neutral. There were no fractal breakouts today in either direction, and 2,765 has continued not to be broken to the downside as of this time. The result was that two more hourly fractals, one up & one down, were added closer in.

S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Neutral

At least today, we can present a more well-rounded look at the chart from the March 22 interim high. From the five waves off the high, i - v, there appeared the flat wave that we called for after the end of Monday's session. Then, yesterday and today, the chart counts best like there are only three waves down, so far, to yet another 90% wave at the low of today. So, the first flat may only be the a:3 wave of a larger flat, and today may have ended the b:3 wave.

So, there could be another overnight gap up and some follow-through to either a c:5 wave to end a larger overall flat, or there is a less likely probability of a triangle - only less likely because usually triangle waves are not 90% retraces.

Once again caution is the by-word, and patience & flexibility are your key tools to success in wave counting right now. Any close below 2,765 would still turn the chart much more negative.

On another note, from the double zigzag upward in Gold we pointed out on the 4-Hr chart, there has been another higher high, and a retrace to the lower channel line again. From strictly a 'rhythm' or 'time' perspective this seems like the a & b waves of another zigzag. But this needs to be watched closely as any close below $1,300 would likely mean the triple zigzag has already ended. If there is a high above $1,320, first, then that means the triple zigzag is continuing, but just remember, it is an oddity of "z" waves that they have a propensity to fail.

GC Gold Futures - 4 HR - Potential Triple Zigzag


Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

21 comments:

  1. Thanks JT. I also was looking at that 5 down starting March 21/22. The 3rd wave is not the shortest but there was no extended (1.62) wave. Consequently, I kept looking for alternates (flats / expanded flats to pair with that 5 down) but could not really find one. It's five non-overlapping waves down - so I guess I have to count it that way.

    ReplyDelete
  2. That last a in gold sure looks like an ugly 3 and every other a never made the top TL.
    Does not make a lot of sense for it to be a b wave in a triangle considering 2 zz already. We shall see soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, BBR.. that is the ALT count in gold.

      Delete
    2. larger triangle out as we are below what would be a

      Delete
  3. ET,
    Have an idea for S&P so far 1 hour chart is the highest timeframe where the RSI has broken below 40. The EWO could be developing a divergence as well the RSI if price can make a lower low. I like the fact that price is below the alligators mouth. Once the RSI can break above 60 maybe the up trend continues up.

    I don't like the way DOW looks and any break down S&P could follow.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NMUxNLAN/

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey Joe, thanks for the update although in the after hours trading it looks like it's headed down, not up. Maybe it will put in a wave 5 down although it retraced a little far this afternoon... Thanks again for the analysis...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. or it is going to be a 1 to 2 to the upside...

      Delete
  5. Joe, can that b wave after circle w be more in time than circle
    x? It seems like an invalidation to me.

    Also, the a to b move in price and time relative to circle y
    to circle x. This, too, seems wrong.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We tend to agree on the second one, but it's hard to say on the first one depending on if there was a truncated bar. That's why there's a question mark at b?, and a break of the lower trend line should be watched carefully. To be clear, the second b? wave is taking too much time and might be part of a five-wave-move lower.

      Delete
    2. GOLD (Jun) has definitively broken through the lower channel line, and is now trading below the prior (X) wave. Triple ZZ ended at the high. Now looking for a 1.618 wave down on the 4 hr chart at 1,305.

      Delete
    3. GOLD just tagged $1,300/oz. Counting better than the stock market at the moment.

      Delete
    4. Move gathering steam; can be part of a (c) wave down of E triangle or third wave down of c:5 flat.

      Delete
    5. Target is ultimately the weekly 34.

      Delete
  6. ES 4-hr futures; currently above a down-sloping resistance line; flat wave to 0.618 still possible. So is a triangle or truncated second wave (w-x-y).

    ReplyDelete
  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Stock market, cash S&P, just closed the opening gap. Not good for the bulls. Stay tuned.

    ReplyDelete
  9. A new post has been started for the next day.

    ReplyDelete