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| S&P500 Cash Index - 2 Hour - Correction Count |
Every time one tries to count an impulse, if the blue box is not the longest correction, then the wave from (a) to ((c)) is too long in time to be a fifth wave of a sub-wave three in an impulse count. And it is off by quite a bit. Therefore, it is likely the wave in the middle is a triangle, and that might appear directly before the last wave in the series. In any other impulse count, placing a wave (iii) where ((a)) is makes one of the waves too long. And, as a triangle, wave ((b)) is longer in time than wave (ii) which is of a lower degree. So, it seems the blue box should represent a degree change.
Yes, the ES daily still has an embedded slow stochastic. And price still has a positive bias because it is over the 18-day SMA. So, it may be that the ((c)) wave is not done yet, although price is bumping on the upper daily Bollinger Band, and the 100-day SMA.
Again, I did try every way I could to count the wave impulsively, but I ran into problems with the degree labeling.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I still think there is way too much strength in the market to think about any kind of high right now. There are so many stocks that are showing accumulation and strength, it's getting kind of impressive. The market appears to be getting stronger rather than weaker.
ReplyDeleteIt is remarkable how few people do not recognise that a buying central bank posture will severely distort market T.A. How often previously have we seen extreme market conditions persist and become even more extreme. I literally laughed out loud after opining that perhaps another doji or shooting star at the top of the uptrend would signal, as in August and October, a market top, only to see one from last Friday negated with a higher high today. Am I the only one that finds the repeated negation of so many normally reversal signals a bit peculiar? It does make one wonder... Looks to me like we are being played...😉
DeleteWe should have had our high today, based on timing models. The NYAD line is almost at new highs. However, the Global Shipping index chart is horrendous.
Deletethanks joe,
ReplyDeletethis count was mentioned in real time on the blog. I agree its hard to find impulse for whole move.
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Reply
Marc Spungin
January 23, 2019 at 2:08 PM ---
last 2 days is a better b wave than what we have been counting in abc of 2. there is some probability that 2 is not complete - a zigzag - with its impulse a already counted, and we finished b today, now on way to c of zigzag.
Wouldn't the normal relationship of a=c put us at an all time high? IE the market is in 1 of C not 5 of C?
ReplyDeleteI know how uncomfortable this count is. Thing is, in larger diagonals, rarely is c = a.
Deletewe could be ending c. we could be ending 1 of 5 if c. those are corrections.
ReplyDeleteif you want count impulse im gathering
a and b could become 1 and 2 thus putting us in brink of (iii) of 3.
The entire move up from the low of wave 2 on Jan 3 is in a near perfect channel. Hmmm The mid-line has twice served as resistance in the last 10 days. We are now approaching it for the 3rd time. Will it hold again?
ReplyDeleteThe down trend line from the Oct 3 top has been broken.
The 61.8% fib retracement has been broken.
The 100 day MA has been broken.
The upper Bollinger Band has turned up and is not acting as resistance.
The SPX re-embedded today.
The last line of defense is the 200 day MA which is some 16 points away.
If there is a failure in the offing it had better happen soon.
Agree with all.
DeleteFWIW, I've been counting it as abcxabc.
ReplyDeleteUsing your labels:
red(i)(ii)(iii) = abc
red(iv)= x
red(v) = a
black((b)) = b
black((c)) = c
Like a broken record .. you have no overlaps. None. By which to prove your case. At least I am counting ((a)) as an impulse.
DeleteI am unaware of any rule that requires a 7-wave combo to have overlaps. In regards to the impulse count, the very first sub-wave of 2347-2468 only has 3 waves in it, as far as I can tell, which rules out the impulse count.
DeleteI didn't say it was a 'rule'. But what prevents the impulse count is the overlaps. How do you 'know' otherwise, your "first five" are not an impulse, with the next two a 'b' wave. You don't unless you can rule out impulses with the help of overlaps. I'm not addressing this again with you. Your counts have "always" been incorrect. Every posting; every time.
DeleteI came to this site solely due to the excellent write up on the Eight Fold Path Method!
ReplyDeleteI thought it was (and still is) the best detailed look at the EWO and the nuances it can provide! Ironically, it has raised a question (actually early last year) regarding what I thought at the time was an ending wave 5 to come to complete the move up from 2009. Perhaps I'm missing something blatantly obvious, but it seems to suggest something different. The following 3 index charts illustrate what I believe is an occurrence that deserves some discussion. Thanks in advance for your patience.
https://imgur.com/QhtqpIS
https://imgur.com/33ThSgX
https://imgur.com/LXMvzIz
I thought with this "defect" of EWO. It has logic becasue EWO only shows the difference between absolute values of two simple averages. So, the higher prices show values of EWO higher. At timeframes longer that a week this happens very often.
DeleteI wrote a custom EWO with percentages instead of absolute values and then, the ewo values show equal peaks at your 3 and 5.
One good answer 6Q.
DeleteFwiw:
DeleteEven if the PPO is used to account for % difference, the DJI remains with a higher osc peak at Oct '18 high, implying that it was an extended w3, not w5. So, either it stands alone as being different, or the other indexes should be viewed similarly. Either way, the question remains.
ET, I like your count but why couldn't i ii be a b? Dec 28th a Jan 3rd b. Price gaps had my interest, Jan 4th and Jan 30th.
ReplyDeleteReason I don't like this move upward
Price over 13 ema stand aside.
We are still inside December price bar. Negative we have retrace this much.
RSI is at 66 near peaking for a bear market range. Bull market RSI should push past 70.
Fib range of interest 2750-2775
As I have explained many times, if Dec 28th is 'a', then the supposed waves inside 'c' are longer in time than 'a' - which they can not be if they are of lower degree than 'a'.
Deletejoe
ReplyDeletecould 5 waves uo from 2009 be complete
and
the short oct to dec drop be wave 2?
not a lot of permissible counts since 2009. but is the aforementioned idea a remote possibility in regards to degree violations?
2 of what? That is where your lack of paying attention to degree symbolism gets one in trouble. What degree .. in terms of real degree symbols .. was the 2018 top .. which was properly called? And what degree down is your wave '2', which as you have written it is Minor degree?
DeleteI could be wrong but think this is a good question. If 2018 completed 5 up of just I of ED for SC V. Instead of all of V. In that case, the ABC down from Oct - Dec could be a A of II
DeleteIf order for me to seriously consider this as an alternative (I think), this measured ABC up would then need a B wave back down then a C wave back up to the 90% retrace level for a potentially complete ((B)) wave of a flat for II.
Delete@ tacharts
ReplyDeleteI've been wondering the same thing so thank you for posting the visual. As you said, it's one of two things, 1) either we're currently in a wave 4 from 2009 bottom or 2) wave 5 is allowed an EWO divergence. The first one seems to break degree rules. Either way, I haven't seen anyone respond to your questions, they're all non-answers.
Thanks again,
-TJ
Lezgetbizy-
DeleteThanks for the comment. Everything I've read (including here), states w5 always, must diverge from w3. I've certainly found that to be the case. Based upon that, and because I can't speak to the degree aspects, I'm with the AO. It's done a pretty good job so far.
Thanks again.
What do you mean by 'with the AO'?
DeleteAlso, if you look at the Joe's 15 min channel on cash S&P posted today, we're presumably in a minor wave 5 of that channel. If you zoom in at with 3 min bars (~150 bars since yesterdays 2PM CST) and look at EWO profile of this impulse, wave 5 doesn't diverge. Given that wave 5s sometimes extend, I'm beginning to question that the fact that EWO must always diverge.
Awesome Osc(AO) (used as EWO). As to your second comment, first be sure you have a good bar count within you data. As to whether wave 5 always does or must diverge, you'd have to ask Joe. He wrote the article (which I find to be worth its weight in gold as per my experiences relating EW wave identifications!) :o)
DeleteThere is a new cash S&P500 15-min channel to focus on.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9zaga
TJ
Series gaps tend to occur at the start, or end of extended bull runs. Either we are going a LOT higher, or we are going a LOT lower....
ReplyDeleteVerne,
DeleteWhile I love Joe's work and appreciate all he does, I would also like to thank you for these little tidbits of trading that come from experienced traders, such as yourself. They sure add a lot of value to Joe's great work. So, thanks.
Thank you Joe. I find it interesting that if the 5th wave hits the upper channel, the EWO would likely fail to diverge. Kind of like the 5th from the 2009 low on the 160 bar chart.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a 5 waver off the Christmas lows completed this morning. I'm in the bear camp, though a nice bull set-up could be in place if we get a three step partial retracement, which would leave the current wave that completed today wave 1 of of a larger five waver. As I said, I'm in the bear camp - till we see such an A-B-C pullback - though any bear wave that develops from here would have to be pretty convincing to nix the bull set-up, IMHO.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the ES futures, a 1.618x wave would not be established until 2,772.71 for even a third wave ??
DeleteIt is possible to make a case like this.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9zb9m
TJ
Better confirmation would come from trading below, and back-testing the channel with a failure; and/or trading below the wave marked as iv.
DeleteTj, What about your (iii) as extended minuet 1, running minuet 2 and 3,4 5 to come?
DeleteI think a fill of today's gap would also be noteworthy...😊
ReplyDeleteYes, otherwise can still be in a smaller degree fourth wave after the gap.
DeleteCash gap was filled at 1 PM ET.
DeleteTJ, this ((c)) should be bigger than (iii) because bigger degree? If so minimum price for ((c)) should be 2785? I´m measuring distance of (iii) from ((b)).
ReplyDeleteI mean ((c)) bigger than (i) which is at 2808
Deletepossible; this could only be minuet (i) of minute ((c))
DeleteI used to really enjoy trading triangles as they were generally quite predictable as penultimate waves. It would be depressing if your count was negated with only a wave one up out of that very clear fourth wave triangle. That would really be a game changer for my T.A. trading tool box! 😎
ReplyDeleteQuick query ET.
ReplyDeleteIs negative divergence on AO a legitimate gauge for wave maturity?
Thanks in advance!
In certain circumstances.
DeleteRough measures (assuming triangle was "b"):
ReplyDelete.618A=C around 2834
A=C around 2960
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete@6Q
ReplyDeleteRe your post
"February 5, 2019 at 11:13 AM
.... I wrote a custom EWO with percentages instead of absolute values and then, the ewo values show equal peaks at your 3 and 5."
Could you share with us the formula you used for the custom EWO you are talking about?
John -
DeleteIf I'm not mistaken, you can use a PPO with simple avgs and using hl/2. Tradingview does this, not sure if all PPOs do. Just a thought.
For tradingview is very simple:
Deletestudy("Percent EWO")
AO = (sma(hl2, 5) - sma(hl2, 34)) * 100 / hl2
kolor1 = AO[0] <= AO[1] ? red : green
plot(AO, style=histogram, linewidth=2, transp=0, color=kolor1)
Warning: Utilise it only for long term charts. This method exaggerates the divergences.
Time-wise, the comparison of the 2 and 4 in the rally off the Christmas lows suggests today ended the 5th wave (of a larger wave label to be determined.) Was 2 dip lasting 3 to 4 days, while the 4th wave lasted 5 to 6 days - very similar. The case that today ended a 3rd wave, would suggest a deeper 4th, which would likely be much larger than wave 2, which would seem strange to me. That's what I'm seeing, anyway, FWIW.
ReplyDeleteKevin. Where is your 1.618 wave for 3?
DeleteNot sure why you need a 1/618 wave for 3. Impulse and C waves are comprised of 5 distinct wave, where 4 can't overlap 1, and 3 can't be the shortage. In general, 1/3/5 are also comprised 5 waves, with 2 and 4 counter-trend A-B-C. There's generally a relation to timing, where 1 and 5 are often of similar length of time, 3 the longest (often), and 2 and 4 similar in time. Why is that not correct? What role does 1618 for 3 play in that? Thanks for offering your teaching time!
DeleteThere was just now from the high a downward wave that did not reach 1.618, and it reversed sharply. When a wave in either direction does not reach 1.618 it has a high tendency to be just a "c" wave (or part of a diagonal). If you can't find the wave that is 1.618, then you can't tell me which of your waves is the extended wave in the sequence.
DeleteWhat do you think about my count:
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9zd8y
You have broken every rule there is. I won't comment any more.
DeleteI love if you believe in that kind of count, I know there are more people bullish than I think. I stay with ET.
DeleteAnyone here have a bullish count? I think it's time to get serious about a massive wave to the upside. We have had very little distribution and a lot of stocks have continued to move higher. Plus, there is next to no stocks rolling over to indicate a pullback is coming. I have never seen a market drop significantly with these conditions.
ReplyDeleteI’m thinking maybe the January 2018 drop was wave A. Then the new high in October Wave B and we finished wave C in December. As a flat. The problem is we would have a lot better leadership with that count right now.
ReplyDeleteI've entertained that count as well Todd.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the comment, Pooldawg. I have no idea how to count, though. I have learned that following what's working in the S&P and other indexes is most effective for my analysis.
DeletePossible "barrier triangle" with this as wave (b) up, a complex wave, prior to the State of the Union Speech. It would be a fourth wave.
ReplyDeleteI am led to this hypothesis by an overlap which is not within a diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9zej5
TJ
@Matteo. Comments related to trading, actual trades, positions, etc. are not to be posted on this site. This is a site about wave-counting, only.
ReplyDeleteET, we place (iii) where (a) is then ((b)) will become (iv) and will be longer than (ii).
ReplyDeleteIn that won't (ii) and (iv) will be of the same degree and there won't be any restriction on their lengths ?
Thanks.
The v of (iii) is longer in price and time than (i) and that is not allowed for a sub-wave of (iii).
DeleteET, sorry but am unable to see where 5 of (iii) is becoming longer than (i). The wave between two vertical red lines is the wave from (ii) to (a) in your chart. If we move (iii) to ((a)) then 5 of (iii) is less than .618 of (i). May be am plotting it wrong ?
Deletehttp://tos.mx/ovlHqi
3 gets cut off from 02 line
DeleteMarc, every line unless drawn from 0-4 is cutting the next wave. I put label 1 becoz next up wave has a gap in it.
Delete@E_D_T. No. The way you have drawn it, then your lower degree wave iv of 3, which you have carefully ignored to label, is now 'longer in time' than your supposed larger degree wave 2. And, that is a degree violation. (It would be ok if it were just longer than ii of 3, but it is ALSO longer than 2, which creates the violation.) I'm telling you I have pretty well tried every combination of waves. It doesn't work.
DeleteThanks for pointing the mistake ET. I trust you on the count, wanted to know where i was messing up.
DeleteIf a downward diagonal is unfolding (since Nov '18), following what Joe is hypothesizing, the upward correction in Nov '18 is ((b)) of wave 1 down.
ReplyDeleteAbove is what Joe has shared before. To add in my observation, the current upward correction we are experiencing has exceeded the price of the above mentioned ((b)). And a few days ago, this upward correction has exceeded the duration of the above mentioned ((b)). Time and price degree rules are not broken.
Duration of ((b)): 24 daily bars
Duration current upwards wave: 27 daily bars presently.
I'm new at this so forgive me if this is incorrect.
DeleteMore support of ET's count:
EWP has a guideline for diagonals that waves 2 and 4 retrace 66-81% of previous wave. SPX hit 66% yesterday.
Wave ((c)) of 2 will be 61.8% of ((a) of 2 at around 2745 SPX so maybe one more little push 2 ends
Thanks for sharing jwtx12. This guideline for diagonals (i.e. 66-81% retrace) is something new to me. :)
DeleteMay I ask what is the full name of EWP? Thanks a lot.
Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter
DeleteThanks pal!
Deleteand this part is completely inaccurate. got confused.
DeleteWave ((c)) of 2 will be 61.8% of ((a) of 2 at around 2745 SPX so maybe one more little push 2 ends
Now down to 78.6% of prior wave; alternate is we topped yesterday. Much further lower and it is difficult for a triangle to continue.
ReplyDeleteCash just took out the low; no longer a triangle; possible FLAT or topped.
DeleteFutures did not make a new low, and have one level of upward overlap already.
DeleteFutures now have the second level of upward overlap. All downward waves have been overlapped upward. And now at 78% retrace (minimum for a truncation).
DeleteGetting uglier; also a possible diagonal downward.
Delete64% downward retrace, so far. Solidly in the Fourth Wave Conundrum - which happens at every degree of trend. The 64%, if it holds can be a wave two of five, or wave b of an 'upward' diagonal five; and if it doesn't hold, can be part of an expanding diagonal lower. No man's land.
DeleteWe're in a final distribution phase now, will probably terminate tomorrow, huge sums going into t-bills (check the SPDR 1-3 month bill ETF).
DeleteA contact of mine sees loads of evidence below the surface of massive distribution, for weeks now.
A 1929/87 event is about to start IMO.
Yes! The banksters are covering the exits.
DeleteA blind trader could see this! :)
Sideways chop . . . can this be anything other than a wave 4?
ReplyDelete. . . if so, what is the expectation for size of wave 5?
DeleteSo far tick is displaying only moderate selling pressure. Looks more like bulls taking profits than bears gaining the upper hand.
DeleteWhile the last line of defense (200 Day MA) is in fact acting as resistance, it is not serving as a rejection point. For several days price is chopping around just beneath it. In light of the fact that the DOW has already broken above it's 200 MA it would not be unreasonable to expect more upward movement in the SPX.
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DeleteIts the Flow
ReplyDeletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2019-02-05_6-27-47.jpg?itok=nAOGaOnQ
It is truly remarkable how some folk will swear on their grandma's grave that CB activity has nothing to with market price and therefore what waves,Elliott or otherwise, look like!
DeleteAbsolutely amazing!
Hi Verne.
DeleteSome nuance for you: central bankers are humans, like you and me. When the going is good for us, it's good for them. When the mood changes, they follow. They are not the horse, humanity is the horse. Ultimately it's all driven by Jehovah. Research golden jubilees, then consider 1932, 1982 and 2032.
While nothing is yet exceptionally clear, here are some measurements that make some sense.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9zsdf
TJ
Futures got up and slightly over the upper declining parallel on the cash close. Best possibilities seem like diagonal or triangle.
DeleteFor either of those, then this morning's 10:30 am ET low must hold.
DeleteMatched that low to the penny.
DeleteAnother triangle and clearly heading higher...
DeleteLower I think Verne. It's the 7th, perfect date for the crash cycle to kick off.
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ReplyDeleteThe divine ratio says: thou shalt not pass.
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ReplyDeleteAppears to be the truncation top noted at 10:54 am; where the Dow has the higher high. Now a gap, and a 2.618 wave downward.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete