Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed uniformly higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close - Outside Reversal Candle Up
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
On Sunday Dec 23rd, we analyzed that a short-term pop could be coming soon based on sentiment (we said to watch to see if a B wave completed. It did not). That pop occurred today to help relieve some of the negative sentiment. The daily count currently remains on track. This morning we analyzed "to the bar" that a contracting diagonal was occurring. Then, we confirmed that the beginning of the diagonal was exceeded in less time than the diagonal took to build - a true diagonal. That almost certainly means a wave series ended at today's low.
And that seems to mean the daily count is as below.
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| S&P500 Cash - Daily Index - Likely In Minuet (iv) |
As long as minuet (i) is not overlapped, it is possible to see this wave as minuet (iv). This is a relatively large up wave, so far. As best we can tell, it has only occurred in three segments - which may not be complete yet. The fourth and fifth waves of a C wave may be needed tomorrow.
If the up wave forms three waves, then it is possible to see this first segment as part of a triangle which may help equalize it's net distance traveled with wave minuet (ii). Of course, a triangle for wave minuet (iv) would have to prove itself in every detail. Just bear in mind that contracting triangles often start with a very violent wave, and today's up wave would certainly fit that bill.
The daily Elliott Wave Oscillator is at a new low for the move, so this should still be signalling a third wave in force. Prices may find some resistance on or near the lower base channel line.
If there is a triangle, then there should be a new low around the 1.618 Fibonacci level shown, followed by a larger fourth wave, minute ((iv)). All-in-all, this could make for very volatile back-and-forth waves ahead.
As far as I can tell, the market is still doing what it is supposed to. So, we'll have to stay aware of the wave personalities and count as best we can.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Joe, in your previous post, you showed the count down from 2585 to 2347 as a i-ii-iii. However, today's rally overlapped that wave i at 2441. Now you are showing the daily chart with a completed impulse label from 2685-2347 and calling it wave (iii), which means that you have changed your internal count of that wave from every chart you have shown during the previous 9 days. My question is how are you now able to count 2685-2347 as a 5 wave subdivision without the 3rd wave being the shortest? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteGood question. It works with a wave iv barrier triangle. I had cited that possibility in several comments in real time. But it is still a contentious count as the whole move didn't channel well.
DeleteI'm thinking that it's still i-ii-ii from 2585 to 2351, and then today's early rally to 2386 and decline to 2347 was iv-v. (even though the time is very compressed for those final two waves) That will remain valid if it takes out 2347 before it overlaps 2530.
DeletePossible.
DeleteThanks Joe.
ReplyDeleteIt would be nice to see the rules of counting with wave degrees applied to everything after the failure if you can label. Right now applying the rules the best i can (iii) becomes ((iii)). Thanks
After what failure?
Deletewave 2 failure in blue on chart posted today...not any failure of yours
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteGeneral question. In a barrier triangle is it allowable for wave "B" to exceed "A" and "D" to exceed "B".
Thanks
yes, slighty.
DeleteJoe, in the 8-fold path you wrote that wave 4 shouldn`t retrace more than 50% of wave 3, is this a hard rule or more a soft one?
ReplyDeletedepends if wave 4 turns out to be a triangle or not. Triangles are measured to their (e) waves, not to the absolute height of the triangle.
DeleteThanks!
DeleteJoe, it would help to learn your rules and applications if you provided a complete count of subwaves on daily chart above. thanks
ReplyDeletePotential 4 already bigger than 2 on points but not time.
ReplyDeleteCould this be the 5th Wave of a c wave down to end B and it's in the form of an ending diagonal? The A wave would have been yesterday's up move? Then we start C up to end Wave 4?
ReplyDeleteNot as likely. Diagonals are less frequent than impulses. We already had two sub-waves that were diagonals. And since this down leg is longer than the first, then the only type of diagonal would be an expanding diagonal. But there is no evidence for that unless minute ((i)) is over-lapped in the upward direction.
DeleteThanks, Joe!
ReplyDelete5 min chart: Triangle?
ReplyDeletea @ 10:30
b @ 11:30
c finishing now @ 12:10?
Looks like it.
DeleteInvalidated c longer than a in time
DeleteOn 1 min chart also seeing abc where a down was LD and now in 4 of c down
ReplyDeletecould also still be in 3 of c down
DeleteCould also b a down and a b wave triangle. 4th wave confusion.
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteIs it permissible to have an abc where both a and c are diagonals?
Wave 1 of yesterdays potential impulse is at 2409.46
ReplyDeleteWave 2 was an expanded flat.
Wave 4 triangle has been invalidated
Hard to see with today's price action how we can get a zigzag that doesn't overlap 2409.46
Can your wave 1 be A, flat for B and probably diagonal getting build for C as your wave 3 has only 3 subwaves ?
DeleteFor diagonal, it can only go down until 2397 and still remain shorter than wave 1 of diagonal and make new high.
DeleteOh, other possibility is yesterday was abc up of an A and we are in B and C will come ?
DeleteP T, Can this triangle work?
Deletea @ 9:10
b @ 10:30
c @ 11:35
d @ 12:40
e @ 1:10
EDT and Ronb
DeleteAs Joe has stated yesterdays large move was 3 waves. We were looking for 4 and 5 today. That has not occured and the potential wave 1 at 2409 has been overlapped leaving the move as a three. I suspect that the up move yesterday was subminuette a of a minuette(iv) triangle. This is just a suspicion at this time.
with a 9:10 a you must be looking at futures. I don't do futures counts
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry (a)was at 9:40.
DeleteRon
DeleteIn a triangle in both price and time a>c>e and b>d. Your times do not conform to this. a=30 min c=35min : b=50 min d= 65min
I think we are seeing Jose fourth wave conundrum in action :-)
ReplyDeleteNo 4th wave. See my comment above
DeleteJoe's, sorry
ReplyDeleteCould wave (ii) be instead a flat so now we should expect a zig-zag for wave (iv) ?
ReplyDeleteCan't 'assume' a diagonal yet, but can wonder about one. S&P500 5-min chart.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9mroh
TJ
Below 2,390 such a 'potential' diagonal would invalidate and become a full-on 'c' wave impulse, with 'a' back where micro ((1)) is. That is because wave ((3)) would become longer than ((1)). In this potential diagonal, I am allowing wave ((1)) the time of the overnight futures hours - in terms of 'time.'
DeleteBut, at least such a 'potential' structure gives us a very clear invalidation point to work with, with the upward 'a' has now been overlapped in the downward direction.
DeleteRight on ET, was looking at 15 mins spx chart & gives better view of what you just shared.
DeleteThere is now upward overlap at micro ((1)), down. Can either be a diagonal or a flat 'b'. Market will have the last say.
DeleteWave micro ((4)) in such a 'potential' contracting diagonal may not grow larger than micro ((2)). If it does, then most likely the pattern is morphing into a 'flat' b wave. Either way, it gives us another rock solid invalidation point to work with.
DeleteFrom what I can see, then 2,431 would be upward invalidation. Hasn't hit it yet.
DeleteET shouldn't wave ((3)) of converging diagonal take less time than wave ((1)) ?
DeleteIf the diagonal forms then your abc becomes all of Minuette (iv) and the funky minuette (1) shifts to the left and minuette (ii) becomes a running flat to alternate with a zigzag (iv). This does solve the questionable minuette (i) that currently looks like a three as I've mentioned in the past.
ReplyDeleteOnly if yesterday's lows are taken out, lower.
DeleteI guess that would be pretty incontrovertible proof. lol
DeleteThis question is for anyone. On Joe's chart he shows a three up ABC and now with a possible diagonal lower for a wave A lower. Does that mean we will see a B and then C lower before heading higher. I cannot tell if we are thinking wave 4 is complete and we head to new lows now or if we are still in a correction for wave 4.
ReplyDeleteThanks
I think that is what Joe is showing and he used the same size letters by accident. I am thinking the a on the right is a leading diagonal of B down and then a C up to complete the 4th wave but I'm not sure. I mentioned another possibility above but not sure of it's validity.
ReplyDeleteET shouldn't wave ((3)) of converging diagonal take less time than wave ((1)) ?
ReplyDeleteI addressed that in my first comment at 2:20 PM. Please read my comments before asking me to tie myself up with un-needed questions.
DeleteWave ((4)) of digonal greater than ((2)), invalidation ?
ReplyDeleteI addressed that in my first comment at 2:49 PM. Please read my comments before asking me to tie myself up with un-needed questions.
DeleteSorry for the trouble, will read your comments thoroughly before asking.
DeleteI may be way off and misunderstanding right night as I am a little confused but does anyone have any thoughts on this? Three up to complete wave 4 then off to lower lows after reaching (y)
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9ms38
We might have to take out yesterday high for any upside action i think.
DeleteI can buy the overall pattern. I don't like the triangle though. I would place black b where you have circle c so that black c of (w) has a clear 5 waves up.
DeleteSo black b would be a running flat?
Deleteyes
DeleteCurrently have 'potential' wave ((4)) shorter than ((2)), by the measurements using these quotes. Also, wave ((4)) is shorter in 'time' than wave ((2)). Any higher, and a potential diagonal busts and a flat takes over.
ReplyDeleteThere is 2,431; a flat takes over.
DeleteFlat takes over for now, as a 'potential' diagonal invalidated.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9ms9b
TJ
meaning, a 5 wave c has started?
DeleteCash just went over the top. Has to be some other count with an overlap in it.
ReplyDelete2 ABCs down? - WXY early morning AB and C wave contracting diagonal. Then afternoon ABC with A ending at 2416.43? best I could come up with anyway
Deletethis wave from yesterday low is too big for the move down from 12/3 not to be 5 waves.
ReplyDeleteWhy? I am just asking to try to learn this degree language.
DeleteIs it because (4) larger than (2)? and is now over a 38% retrace of (3)? Previously I had always defaulted to (4) could not overlap (1) but that is at 2583
the move down from 12/3 is hard to count. This is a higher degree fourth wave with move from 12/3 being 3rd wave. I have yet to find how to count it any other way without violations.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deletealso, I read you are counting this as a high degree 4th wave. Where do you have wave 3 off the 2008 bottom ending?
Deleteim only referring to oct 2018 top. But yes i think 2000 was 3 of 3, 2008 was 4 of 3, and 2018 was 5 of 3, so its largest 4th degree wave of our lifetime perhaps
DeleteHi Marc. In the grand super cycle - as you mentioned above - after completing the 5 of 3 in 2018 Oct.....we should then begin the ABC corrective wave of the 4th wave right? When do you project the 4th wave to end and also how low could it be expected to go?
DeleteI dont know. maybe there is no grand cycle. maybe its generational. So maybe this is second wave off of 2008. only way we ever know is if we take out that low anyway. To anser your question we can have ABC for a long time. Joe probably is the person to best answer a lot of the questions.
ReplyDeleteThanks Marc. While most of us are busy identifying patterns in the very short timeframe (staring at a tree bark), perhaps it is a good habit to step back once in a while and look at the forest.
Delete