Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed mixed
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Close - Spinning Top Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Many major U.S. equity indexes made higher daily highs today, and then pulled back. In a major feat of heroics, the NASDAQ 100 futures and NDX made new all-time-highs (ATH), joining the Russell 2000 to make two of the four major indexes that have done so. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the S&P500 Index have not.
The significance of those moves can not be understated: no matter how much the bears wish to claim it, these indexes now simply can not be counted as a 1, down and 2, up, with the new all-time highs. That would violate the simplest of the Elliott Wave rules.
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| $RUT and $NDX Daily - New All Time Highs |
Now, it is possible for the NDX / NQ100 to be in a potential diagonal, but that remains to be seen. If so, we would be in minute ((iii)) of such a diagonal. There is simply nothing wrong with the prior triangle count, and so now our job is to look for upward extensions or downward overlaps in this index.
As long as the Dow and S&P continue making new daily highs, the trend should be viewed as up as the swing line is currently up in the ES E-Mini S&P500 futures, price is over the 18-day SMA, and the 18-day SMA is over the 100-day SMA in a bullish cross. Further, the ES daily slow stochastic embedded today with three days in a row with both the %D, and the %K over the 80 level.
Again, price can pull back at any time to the lower boundary of the up trend channel line shown, yesterday. For now, steady as she goes.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
I am pretty neutral right now, but the Nasdaq can already be counted as triangle + 1 finished impuls, which may already be the final one. You posted the NFLX count were NFLX is about to make a deep dive, this can easily be coupled with wave 1 down in the N100. The S&P500 can still be in the middle of the pack, because i think that the defensive stocks in it are about to rally hard from their lows. Maybe a rally in the 10y treasuries will trigger this next week when the FED raises interest rates for the last time this year. So long Consumer staples/utilities short Nasdaq100 will be quite a profitable trade, or just long TMF/TLT.
ReplyDeleteNFLX and NQ might count together as diagonals.
DeleteYes or they both have already finished the whole bull move. Everything is possible in this regard, but what i am pretty sure about is that further upside is limited and that the bear market will very likely start this year.
DeleteA crash is still hypothetical, but always 'possible'. I have provided the pull-back area as the bottom of the lower channel line.
ReplyDelete