Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower; $RUT higher
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close - Trend Candle ?
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Well, the e wave of the potential hourly triangle survived another day. The hourly chart of the S&P500 Cash Index - as we have been showing it for several days now - is below.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Potential Triangle |
The cash index had closed Tuesday at 2,657. ES futures prices were lower overnight on some saber-rattling regarding Syria. So, the cash index opened with a gap down at 2,644 and traded down to 2,641 landing right on the hourly EMA-34. At that point, in another whippy session prices traded up to close the opening gap, reaching 2,661. And towards the end of the session, prices traded down and made a minor new intraday low at 2,639 before rising to close at 2,642 - essentially right on the hourly EMA-34 again.
During the live chat room session, I indicated that if this (b) wave holds, then the purpose of the triangle may have been to make the (b) wave longer in time than the (a) wave. At the current e wave location, wave (b) is about 77 hourly candles, and that would exceed wave (a)'s 66 hourly candles.
So far, the movements have the right look. The (a) wave is grinding and hard to count. And the potential (b) wave triangle makes some sense. But, price is the ultimate arbiter, and so one must simply wait to see if a (c) wave lower get's underway to finish a second zigzag.
Meanwhile, remain flexible, calm and patient as the story plays out. Keep in mind the market's not going to move until it is ready, regardless of what we think.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
The proposed wave E in the Nasdaq managed to slightly exceed wave C yesterday. Since, as you stated, in no case should Wave E exceed Wave C how would you reconcile this? Different counts for different markets? It feels and looks like a triangle - a bear flag or whatever else you want to call it but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an aggressive pop up soon.
ReplyDeleteEither slightly different counts for different markets, or all markets are in larger triangles. Remember, the Nasdaq also had a new high that the Dow, the S&P and the RUT did not even approach.
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