Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Risk Increases

Market Outlook: Still in Minor 3
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes Higher, except DJ Utilities
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close : Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

We can not quite count a top in any index yet. Here are the two daily charts that likely make the most sense at this time.

S&P500 Index Daily - Thrust Out of Running Triangle

Today the ES daily futures closed above the upper daily Bollinger Band on very light volume - about the second or third lightest of the year. And, the NQ futures, chart below, has not completed it's potential ending diagonal yet to end Minor 3.

NQ Futures Daily - Potential Ending Contracting Diagonal

Yesterday was the first day of the month with the characteristic inflows from pension funds, 401k's, retirement accounts, dividend reinvestment plans, and company buybacks.

If you are looking for a way to understand this bubble, or a name to call this bubble, I suggest this one.

2000 - Nasdaq Bubble
2007 - Real Estate Bubble
2017 - FED Led Unbelievable Buy-Back Bubble (or FLUBB)

Have a good evening,


  1. We are also in a unbelievable commercial real estate bubble that we have not seen since the 1920s. During the last rally in 1929, traders had to decide if they should sell their 50% or more individual stock gains they made during that year or wait for more. Well, I know what happened...they all headed for the exits at the same time. Utility stocks were first to sell-off hard in 1929. Keep the faith Joe, the bears are about to take this market back and the bulls are going to be jumping out of their windows. Welcome to 1929!

  2. Salut tim pour le moment ça reste haussier tous les jours un autres records
    Il se peut que la phase 4 arrive mais pas sur que la phase 3 est fini parce que elle peut encore durer un peu

  3. What about the tax rate cut? Not interested?

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