Thursday, October 12, 2017

Larger Triangle, Diagonal or Completed Top

Market Outlook: A Larger Fourth Wave Triangle in Minor 3 Completed Today, or Diagonal, or Top
Market Indexes: Most major U.S. Equity Indexes were lower today, except $Tran and $Util
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Lower Close : Neutral Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The market as measured by the S&P500 Index gapped lower today and traded down to 2549 in the first half-hour. After that it began trading upwards and closed the opening gap, making a new all-time higher high by noon, and then again by 13:30 ET. Following the second higher high, the market faded into the close and broke the opening low, trading down to 2548, before rebounding to close at 2,551.

As a result of the two slightly higher intraday highs, and the new lower low, we can now count either a larger triangle, which is shown below, or we completed a diagonal interior to the triangle.

S&P500 Cash - 30-Minute - Larger Triangle or Top

Because there were two slight higher highs today it does allow the alternate count of a completed diagonal. But downward movement was quite nominal.

Yes, the very same waves can also more probably justify the larger triangle or even a larger potential diagonal. But, meanwhile, the NQ futures (see chart below) have done everything that is needed to satisfy the potential diagonal count and, they do not have a lot more room on the upside - unless they, too, only made a triangle and not a diagonal.

NQ Futures Daily - Diagonal or Barrier Triangle

So, while the jury is clearly out, the "look" of the waves are that a top is approaching rapidly, if it is not here already. Impulsing waves should not be struggling like this. And it should be noted again, that all of the open gaps are to the down side.

Again, trading below 2540 cash would likely signal a change in trend that I will have more to say about this weekend.

For now, have a good start to your evening!


  1. Hey TJ....Thank you very much for all you do. Looking forward to your thoughts on the big picture this weekend. Will it be a video like you used to do?



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