Monday, June 19, 2017

Thrust From Triangle

Based on the intraday counting I did in the live chat room today, today looks like the very typical thrust from a triangle.

SP500 2-Hr Chart : Thrust from Triangle

That was anticipated, and, today, I also added some of the more significant gaps (in red circles) that could fill should there be a turn-around. The count at the present time allows for a wave four ((iv)) and then a wave ((v)) higher. That would finish this (b) wave up in the S&P500 with a structure - a triangle - which is common before the last wave in a sequence. And, while wave ((v)) of C can certainly make a higher high, it does not have to. It could truncate.

Although today was a nice pop higher, I remain completely neutral and am primarily "counting waves" until a top is in. Folks, I know some people are already counting the end of the bull market. And while I do expect a significant correction shortly, what did we just have? We had a "running triangle", didn't we? With a higher ((b)) wave, right? The problem for the outright bears is that a "running triangle" usually points to higher prices overall in the market. And, given the recent highs in the advance-decline line, it is more likely pointing to the overall diagonal scenario we suggested in the YouTube video: there is higher to go, but it will be a fight for marginal highs.

Today, the ES touched the upper Bollinger Band, but on a divergence from the slow stochastic. It is possible that tomorrow will exceed the band higher, and lead to a "turn-around Tuesday".

Daily ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures Touch Upper Bollinger Band

No one can say for sure, but it certainly a good possibility given the count as we show it.

Have nice night!


  1. Salut joe
    Tu parle de baisse significative.
    Ça veut dire une baisse de combien en pourcentage ?
    Sur ton graphique en hebdomadaire la chute est pour début août
    Est ce que la donne à changé
    Merci pour ton travail

    1. Nothing has changed. Best indication 7 - 10% once it is confirmed as starting.

  2. Thanks Joe for posting this.

    Really appreciate you mentioning the "running triangle". Helps keep me focused.

  3. Merci joe
    Le plus dure c'est de trouver quand ça va commencer à descendre
    Si c'est début août?? il y a encore 1 mois de hausse

  4. Fantastic experience of learning after reading your blog. I would like to share an important information that experience. Thank you

    Currency Exchanger