Monday, June 26, 2017

Diagonal Proven - Invalidation Removed

SP500 prices gapped higher, again, as expected from our diagonal count. They traded as high as 2450. Then, they traded lower to fill the gap, and again made a 78.6% retracement wave, lower, before recovering to change up less than even one full point. No doubt, if people aren't scratching their heads at this point, they should be!

Meanwhile, we have continued to point out the lack of momentum in this up wave. It's frustrating for both bulls and bears, which is why I remain neutral and just counting waves at the moment.

That price traded up to the 2450 level is critical. That is the 78.6% retracement level on the prior down wave, or from ((iii)) to ((iv)) on the chart below, where a truncation may be claimed to occur (ala Glen Neely, from Mastering Elliott Wave). So today, we now remove the former labels showing Triangle / Diagonal Invalidation because it is now possible to state that a diagonal may have completed with proper form today. I want to clearly caution that this is the alternate count at the moment.

SP500 2-HR Chart : Possibly Completed Diagonal ALTERNATE Count

The main count still sees that in the last wave, which is now (c) of ((v)) of C, that today's up wave was just wave i of (c), as in the chart of the main count, below.

SP500 2-HR Chart : Diagonal As Yet Incomplete

So, if there is not a gap up tomorrow for wave iii of (c), as shown above, then one has to get concerned as to whether a turn-around is happening or not. I have shown two levels on the chart, that the reader may wish to note.

As you may know from dealing with contracting diagonals, wave ((v)) should not become longer than wave ((iii)). That means that the diagonal count would invalidate above 2466.50, and some other count would apply. (I can see one other possibility, but I will only show that count should it become applicable.). 

For now, the thing for me to look for is to see if we can get that sometimes characteristic "throw-over" of the upper trend line, and then a rapid price decline following it, which allows all to agree there was a diagonal wave. Time will tell.

For now, have an excellent start to your evening.

1 comment:

  1. Just want to say thanks again for your continued excellent updates.