Tuesday, May 23, 2017


Potential Only. For the last couple of days, I've been noting this potential wedge shape in the upward direction in the ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures. This means there is potential, and potential only, for a turn lower tomorrow.

Hourly Wedge Shape in the ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures

If the wedge should break down, it is possible to begin the third wave of the minute ((c)) wave lower of Minor 4. Today, a gap that you can see over on the left hand side of the chart was filled. Note that the downward and upward waves can be counted in several ways. The downward wave did not follow The Eight Fold Path Methodology. Neither did it make a significant new low.

The downward wave can, in fact, be counted as 1, A, or X, and the upward wave can be counted as either a three-wave sequence or a five-wave sequence at this point. So, the overall wave sequence can be 1-2, or A-B (in which a flat is or is not used in either case!). Or, the downward wave can simply be an X wave, such that a higher high is made, and the Dow can try once again to make that 90% level in a more complex minute ((b)) wave.

Additional downward overlaps and/or a cash gap are the item of significance that can help clarify the count at this point. Either way, its a correction, and it's nice & muddy - as correction are wont to be! This is the primary reason that I have no interest in trying to micro-label this count. There are several ways to do it at this time.

Trading below 2,390 would be more significant for the downward count, and a new higher all-time high would be needed for the upward count of a more complex minute ((b)) wave. Patience and flexibility are still needed!

Have a good evening.


  1. For SP- why are you not considering running flat as one of the options - the recent low after trump/comey being the C, and B being the high around 2405 and A being 2420ish. thanks

    1. .. because the Dow has not even made 90% yet. There is nothing wrong with a more complex minute ((b)) wave up, if that should occur, so that the Dow makes 90%.