|SP500 Cash Half-Hour Chart|
This count does provide alternation for wave (ii) and wave (iv) in that wave (ii) is a running flat - where the x wave goes over the high by quite a bit. Within wave (iv), neither the ((B)) wave nor the x wave goes over the high. It is the lower ((B)) and x waves that provide that alternation.
With Monday possibly seeing the "beginning of the month" inflows from mutual funds, 401k's, dividend reinvestment plans, company month-end bonuses, etc, it is possible that a (v) = (i) wave will carry over the top to end the minute ((b)) wave upward. See the two black measuring boxes which are the same height.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator is in good position to indicate a fourth wave because it is within +10% to -40% of the high for wave (iii). And, it is clear we have indicated wave ((3)) of (iii) on the peak of the EWO, with ((5)) of (iii) on a divergence.
Further, if you measure the wave in this manner, you will find wave (iii) equals almost precisely 2.618 times wave (i). Today, we were expecting a 38% retrace of wave (iii), but, while close, that did not happen. It suggests there may be some strength on Monday. The primary word of caution would be that wave (iv) has not yet taken up as much time as wave (ii). Perhaps that is symptomatic of a minute ((b)) wave up, or it may indicate there is one more down leg to be provided by the overnight on Sunday. If the correction gets deeper, however, a (v) = (i) leg will likely not cross the high, and we might have to look to (v) = 0.618 x net distance traveled by waves (0 through (iii)), the common second target.
It turns out the DOW can be counted in this same manner, but, interestingly, the DOW has not made the 90% upward mark that the other indexes have. A new high over wave (iii) would allow that. Again, the reason we can count this wave up as an impulse is the Dow made it's previous sub-waves (a) and (b) ALSO as a flat, so this is minuet (c), as an impulse, to end minute ((b)), as best I can tell. The S&P500 is in exactly the same count.
Per our charts of Crude Oil in the last two days, Crude Oil did make five waves up from the low, with good alternation, and then began undergoing some corrective waves.
Have a great start to the weekend.