One way or another mistakes will be made. We don't know what the FOMC will do, although the consensus is they will hold rates steady tomorrow. Today, as shown in the comments for the prior post, price can be interpreted to have made 'five-waves-up'. Price got back near the 18-day SMA, the 'line in the sand', and then backed off a tad.
Will they pump em' on the FOMC, or dump em' on the FOMC & buy-em back the day after? This remains an open question. Because of the likely exceptional volatility, uncertainty and opportunity for mistakes, Ira typically would say something like, "take the day off - at least until you know the report, the chatter in the press conference, and/or then how the big organizations and other countries respond the day after".
In Ira's method, the main trend is trying to be determined for either entry or reversal. Right now, the daily bias is down. Will it stay that way or will price close way above the 18-day, flipping the bias to up? The daily slow stochastic is still over-sold, so this is still a bit of a warning sign from momentum as well.
And, as I showed before, there is still a count, for example, that allows another nicked ATH to be made. It is the one below on the 2-day chart shown. It's a little far away, yet, but, if the 18-period does not restrain prices. This count definitely works.
It is what I referred to earlier as a larger wave 3, although, still in a diagonal. However, the key question to ask is how much does one want to be whipped around inside the daily bands where the 'house' typically has the edge? Being near the 18-day average basically means the odds currently are roughly 50-50. Not very good for large decisions.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
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