Tonight's market has a small gap down (shown as a red circle), which may be related to re-imposition of the 15% tariffs after the Supreme Court invalidated prior tariffs imposed. This is seen below on the ES 30-min chart, the intraday wave counting screen.
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| ES Futures - 30 min - Potential Diagonal |
The up waves prior to the gap down count best as three-wave sequences. So, since there is a possibility of an upward contracting diagonal (either leading or ending), then the measurement on the right shown at 6,877.50 becomes important. That is because, below that level, a fourth wave of a contracting diagonal would become longer than its second wave.
Then, if a fourth wave holds, the fifth wave should not become longer than the third wave.
Let's keep an eye on the levels and remain flexible, patient, and calm until the market gets more directional.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: price-wise the potential larger diagonal has busted lower, as below. So, there may be a truncation high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Eu8DfUPI/
This scenario suggests placing a wave-counting-stop above the high, and see if the high is respected on a retrace.
TJ
It looks to be "fully baked":
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NWwGQUYH/
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, there is now an equal high and outside reversal candle lower suggests still looking for that retrace that does not go over the high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HmiQ7co4/
Intraday the slow stochastic is in the middle of the range but pointing lower. And price is below the 18-per intraday.
TJ
I think that is a weird chart, not because of your notation, TJ, but because it seems to be attempting to include the futures "after-hours" pricing into the chart of the S&P 500 Cash Index. 😵💫
DeleteBut I suppose the chart makes sense for someone trading the S&P500 CFD. 😅
DeleteIn the S&P 500 Index (Cash market regular hours only) there seems to be an unfolding "micro" bear impulse, which has broken below the previous wave b low:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qXcMRxNk/
Yes, it's my understanding that Europeans can not trade US futures as easily as CFD's. TJ.
DeleteSPY (Cash) 15-min: prior low exceeded lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9exWl2oA/
TJ
Cant open the http links is anyone else having that problem or just me
ReplyDeleteOpen a new browser window (not tab). Minimize it. Then try triple left-clicking on a link just to high all of it, and none other. Then, paste in the new browser window. See if that works. TJ.
DeleteThank you
DeleteES 1-hr: when I look at the prior wave structure in the futures, and the overlaps on each of the waves, including which waves are lower than other ones, including the break of the potential diagonal low last night which 'somehow' made a near-equal high, this is the count I am led to.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ySJk5kVH/
There's a leading expanding diagonal, a leading contracting diagonal, and a triangle. It's a messy wave made by GDP results, PCE results, SCOTUS invalidating tariffs, and the reimplementation of 15% tariffs. The a-b-c count still suggests that a retrace would be needed that does not go over the high. It could be shallower, like 38% or 50% but it should just not go over the high for any of the downward counts.
TJ
That's quite a chart TJ, thank you for sharing your thoughts and insight.😊
DeleteI will only point out that an actual higher high (of 1.1 points!) was made in the S&P 500 Cash Index for the final wave.
This is probably more important to me, as an Options trader, but I do think that the higher high with a subsequent sharp reversal (along with the lower low in the Elliott Wave Oscillator) confirms the completion of a corrective pattern from Tuesday 17 February to Monday 23 February. 🤔
Yep! Every options trader knew that laughable cash session spike after the carnage in futures was a death rattle. The artificial daily trading range contrivance was an absolute bonanza for option traders...thank you banksters!! Hehe!
DeleteCorrect. Higher highs for S&P500 Cash (not tradeable). Yet equal highs for SPY (tradeable). Interesting.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UunKt9gG/
TJ
Interesting. Thanks tj.
Delete2 can equal 0
DeleteSeems like it spx could be trying to make a triangle depended of state of union and nvdia out come..the algos are keeping options open
ReplyDeleteThis move in circle can be considered LD or wyz depending on the above 2 events
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/om6lf4ge/
DeleteAnd this is triangle I am looking at it gives lot of options to algos forexample c not completed yet if algos want to take market down or we are in d if algos are ready to make a new high soon.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/VYB5G4b3/
Jack, you need to do some measurements for your comments to gain any credibility. Example, below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/y2zFWdui/
Otherwise, they are just mish-mash.
TJ
I have considered the b down given we had expanded diagonal down overnignt.and another push down..but from my experience we alway miss the move up ground this juncture so lets see
DeleteES 5-min: marginal higher high in slightly wider wedge. TJ.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XWYsOXNV/
ReplyDeleteSPY (cash) 10-min: lower high and lower low outside of the wedge. While not 'currently fatal' for an up count, watch for any additional downward overlaps. Volume is punk.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gZslyYSd/
TJ
Wedges, wedges everywhere, and volume did shrink! (some of you will get the reference and hopefully chuckle...😊)
DeleteES 10-min: as far as I can tell, there are now three waves up as a 5-3-5. Like below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2FBFRnOc/
That is because the noted section is the longest correction in time, and it 'might' be of a larger degree than the internal corrections in the first :5, up.
This suggests (along with the overnight expanding diagonal down), that we may be making a diagonal lower, especially given the 78%+ upward retrace today.
TJ
Also, the overnight expanding diagonal down, shown below, is longer in time than the entire 'a' wave down. So, that expanding diagonal down and 'a' must at least be of the same degree, or else the second wave is of a larger degree.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pH0axHgi/
I'll switch to a longer timeframe to see if a four-hour diagonal makes some sense somewhere.
TJ
Since we don't 'know' overnight upward movement is over, the upward correction of the prior down wave 'could' extend as w-x-y, as shown.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zHevs12z/
Or it 'could' fail here as w-x-y and not necessarily require a diagonal count. Bottom line is caution and flexibility.
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen - there is a potential new channel for a 'c' wave. But it is not the only possible count - just a likely one - so as always caution, patience and flexibility.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yZUZVrFk/
TJ
Reminder: NVDA earnings scheduled for after the close around 16:20 ET. TJ.
ReplyDeleteIt's now 16:28 ET. Tardy A-I ? Tsk. TJ.
DeleteIt's 16:33 now; someone knows something as ES futures now exceed c = a touching 6,990, before backing off to 6,970; still can't find a report. TJ.
DeleteHere you go.
DeleteEarnings per share: $1.62 adjusted vs. $1.53 estimated
Revenue: $68.13 billion vs. $66.2 billion estimated
TJ
ES 1-hr: interesting gap down and some follow-through in the after-hours following the NVDA conference call. So far there has been a touch of the parallel. Could a fourth and fifth wave form? Absolutely, provided there is no overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zHZcLJUz/
TJ
SPY Cash (15-min) - looking very funky with regard to channel at the open. If it breaks it lower, it will likely create a longer wave down than the prior one.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LeqrUTqc/
TJ
..longer wave down confirmed. This rules out a contracting diagonal in cash.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kF756Czj/
TJ
..keep an eye on the prior low, as it can help rule-in or rule-out other structures.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LcPnkHxu/
TJ
SPY (Cash) 15-min: prior low exceeded lower. Watch overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0epkJtIy/
TJ
..yesterday's close-to-open gap up filled in a more impulsive-looking down wave than yesterday's up wave. Overlap has likely occurred.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jSkHbFln/
This again argues for placing a wave-counting-stop at yesterday's SPY high.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ