Something Would Need to Change - 2

Today the ES futures initially made a lower low overnight, then tried a rally when the cash market opened, but it was both overlapping and muted, not making much progress before there was another sell-off into the afternoon. The daily chart of the ES futures is below. The swing line has a lower low and a lower high.

ES Futures - Daily - Lower Low Candle

Notice that the morning low touched the lower daily Bollinger Band before bouncing away from it, and the close was still below the 18-day SMA which keeps the daily closing bias as lower. Further, the daily slow stochastic is still pointed neutral-to-lower.

The form of the candlestick today might be a "spinning bottom" meaning a doji near the low of a retrace but this implies that the high of candle needs to be exceeded before the low - and there needs to be a significant higher close - for the single candle pattern to be confirmed.

So, if there is a b wave down, it is a 78.6% wave as an expanded flat - which implies a higher all-time high is possible. The odds of higher highs are getting lower and lower, but we are within the range of the algorithm, clearly.

If there is weekend news - or something does change dramatically, the bottom could fall out in the expanding triangle - or other - pattern as we have discussed. Until then, there is a new up (green) fractal as shown.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe