In the SPY Cash 4-hr chart, below, today made a 78.6% retrace on the prior up wave. While not definitive, that is getting into the when where failure has to be considered. As the chart, shows, the region between today's low and the prior swing low at 675.79 is a significant area of risk. And the CPI report is tomorrow.
Contrary to what might be difficult to discern the close-to-open gap close on this chart is at 677.45, so this is a level worth watching.
On the daily ES chart, price closed below the 18-day SMA, so the bias switched to lower. Price also went down to the 100-day SMA, and almost made it to the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The relevant prior up (green) and down (red) fractals are shown on the ES daily chart below.
From what I can see, no major stock index has yet exceeded the down (red) fractal yet. If it does it would open the door to a topping count. But, often, the Smart Money might start backing out at the lower band. So, we have to treat this area gingerly, be patient, flexible and bide our time.
We had cited in prior comments we were looking for an expanded flat down. That may have happened as we thought. We just need to keep our guard up for a failure at the high, too. If the down fractal should be exceeded lower, it might open the door to the expanded triangle count - or others. First things first, right?
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Don't know if you have noticed recently whenever the market has been weak during regular hours the after hours futures have corrected the weakness giving a gap up in the morning and getting traders worked up. When will this break.
ReplyDeleteSome say "the sign of a bull market is futures down at night, cash up during the day; the sign of a bear market is futures up at night, cash down during the day." I don't know how rigorously it's been tested. TJ.
DeleteIt sure seems like the futures are up 99% of the time. Everything is coming into place for the market crash soon. The markets are displaying erratic behavior. Mag 7 stocks are not getting bids. It’s been easy to take short bets at the gap opens (minus last Friday). Retail traders are still heavily bullish on tech stocks. We should be testing the April 2025 lows soon. It’s going to be a painful few years ahead for the bulls.
DeleteFascinating to see the volume profile on market declines. It is massive, and has been going on for quite some time now, new ATHs notwithstanding.Somebody is/has been getting out of Dodge, and in a big way. The blather among punditry about retail investors doing the buying is poppy-cock. Credit card balances at all time highs. Savings at multi-year lows. Buying equities with what...Bitcoin?!
ReplyDeletefyi, some folks elsewhere are proposing that we're following Neely's idea in Mastering at Figure 11-31, working thru a horizontal triangle that ends the structure.
ReplyDeleteThat discussion of 'longer segments' is just what regular Elliott analysts know as the 'expanding triangle'. That idea has been discussed here previously several times and was mentioned above. But the new low below the down (red) fractal is necessary to activate it, and that hasn't happened this morning yet. TJ.
Delete5th wave horizontal triangle? Whoa
DeleteThe triangle and the 5th wave will take us close to.summer/mid term elections
DeleteThe person who spotted this pattern has us now in the final leg of the horizontal triangle within the 5th wave (e wave) before the dive; but if this is "ALL" just a large 4th as I'm thinking, then later this spring or early summer, yes.
DeleteB wave expanding triangle. A wave done earlier. TJ.
DeleteES Daily - right now, the ES has tagged the lower daily Bollinger Band and bounced a bit. It's Friday, it could be an 'algo' day. The 100-day (green dashed) is above the market currently. The slow stochastic is neutral.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/U8xf4FcB/
TJ
Yep! They will predictably do the OpEx pin for "Maximum Pain".
DeleteCrazy market. A scalper's paradise, lol! Enjoy your weekend all!
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ