US equity prices as measured by the ES daily futures made a higher high day today as in the chart, below. Prices got up very near to the 18-day SMA where they formed a triangle that we warned about in the comments for the prior post. The triangle was a barrier triangle and, often, these have a mediocre thrust out of them - because of the energy spent by the market to bust the barrier (or so the theory goes). This one did.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Some Rejection by the 18-day SMA |
Regardless, prices experienced some level of rejection near that average and backed off a bit. If this up wave, so far, is a three-way sequence, it suggests placing a wave-counting-stop above today's high. It's not that higher waves can't be made, but it would well mean there needs to be a different count applied whether it remains a three-wave sequence or somehow morphs into a five-wave-sequence.
Prices have closed below the 18-day average for four consecutive days, only meaning that the daily bias is still lower.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
ES/SPY (CFD) 60-min: there is a lower low, so time to draw a parallel and see how price acts. Does it rebound to the upside or break it significantly to the downside?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JJtWiKfM/
TJ
The 5-wave decline in the S&P 500 Index from Wednesday 11 February to Tuesday 17 February now has a 3-wave retracement of just over 61.8% of the decline.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PPi8iRY6/
I haven't labeled the chart, but the retracement appears to be either a "Double Zigzag" or a "Double Three Combination", with the final 5th wave (of c of y) still forming... 🤔
DeleteLooks like Mr. Market wants to melt up due to the Supreme Court ruling against Donny Boy on tariffs. The inverse of the meltdown last April. Especially the Naz. Interesting times! From the Feb 17 low, we have seen a-b- and are into 'c'; or is it 1-2- and into '3'?
ReplyDeleteThanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteCan you simplify this..
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/qe_is_bearish_for_t-bonds/
please do not assign me work. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ