Today's lower low and lower close below the 18-day SMA has firmly set a down trending wave in motion as per the March 2026 ES Daily chart, below. This occurred after prices initially rose overnight to the underside of the line-in-the-sand before falling off.
The next target on the chart would be the combination of the lower Bollinger Band and the 100-day SMA. The daily slow stochastic has quickly moved from embedded higher, to over-sold. The hourly count looks like this at present.
It's a bit too early to say whether an impulse is forming or not.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
A classic B double top and down we go. http://icecream.me/741673b4b8c2a7f355cd4499644f0db9
ReplyDeleteThis may be a C wave, the 18 ma is being retested.
ReplyDeleteSPY (Cash) 30-min: I'm not liking anything in SPY cash yet, at the moment. The wave is too slow, so far. The measurements are not great for an impulse. So, what I am showing is only more possible probability. There may be others. Watch to see if an upward triangle forms.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Bly8qgkK/
TJ
SPY (Cash) 5-min: so far, so good. One valid form of triangle. Can 'breathe' or expand once if it wants.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/om049t6R/
Not allowed below the low of Ⓐ, though, as invalidation.
TJ
Looks like flagging action on daily in DJIA...
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr: now up and over the triangle high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/odaeeDIS/
TJ
Triangle probably counts like this: a bit ugly but all > 62% retraces, and it breaks no 'rules'. Plus, it did the job (Neely's post-pattern confirmation).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mgxH9ZPy/
TJ
If triangle count is correct, it must be a b wave...we shall see...
ReplyDeleteIs it a triangle..that's the question
ReplyDeleteCan be counted as such so just a possibility...price action thus far certainly not conclusive...
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 5-min: this wedge has broken down its speed lines quite a few times, and currently shows overlap warning.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eSwvunbR/
It would 'appear' momentum is slowing, and it would have to reaccelerate into the close to be something else.
TJ
Agreed! Mr. Market is Wiley. Looks to me like the DJIA daily flag could catapult price to the 5K round number so time for patience and caution IMHO. Enjoy your weekend all!
DeleteES/SPY(CFD) ..lower high, and lower low; only options are contracting diagonal with a failure wave and much larger 4th wave. Either way, losing momentum currently.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MKiunSBx/
TJ
..the fourth wave would look quite disproportional; but wouldn't break the rules. TJ.
DeleteHi TJ
ReplyDeleteThoughts on pot truncated 5th?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/pXomYn9n/
Maybe (5) will extend.. but that is not what we´re seeing in the options market, zero gamma above 7000 and extended fith will go > 7200 at least.
DeleteWe´ll see how opex settles monday.
NDX closes at a new daily high...
Delete