On the intraday chart of the ES 30-min (March 2026) futures, simplest is best right now. As the chart shows, two parallels can be drawn around current price action. They should be respected until they should break, if either does.
The overnight pounding action from above on the 6,820 level tends to indicate a triangle, but that is not locked in stone. If it is a triangle, the up wave can be an a / b sequence as shown. But, if the structure is some kind of quasi-structure, or a w-x-y, then the up wave could evolve as an impulse sequence shown as the alternate i / ii. The Principle of Equivalence still tells us to mind our p's and q's until we get some waves with more definitive lengths to the upside or the downside and potential channel breaks.
The daily count options have not changed. To the upside is perhaps the potential daily expanding triangle. And to the downside is still the potential daily expanded flat.
Yes, one could bring in a lot of other considerations: the Santa Rally, the 'holiday effect', ending the year and the quarter on a high for both political gains and capital gains purposes, the typical holiday low volume, etc. But in an Elliott Wave blog, the main consideration is whether the price pattern is an impulse or not. So far, there are three-waves-up. The Smart Money can do a lot of things: gap up, grind up, gap down, etc. Try to use the parallels to check what path best fits and accept the results.
Keep it simple. Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
Record volume is needed to bring in a top. Today the market had record volume. Fwiw
ReplyDeleteI can't find one market that is at 'record volume'. I checked ES and NQ futures, Dow, IWM, SPY, etc. As just one example, here are the ES futures and volume.
DeleteES Futures Volume Study
Your erroneous comments will continue to be challenged and deleted. And either show your work from now on or they will 'assume' to be erroneous. Period.
TJ
Ira mentions volume in his weekend update as being 50% above normal on Friday. I'm not sure where he got the info from. What interests me is they didn't close above the 18ma on both spy and qqq. All that volume and they didn't close above the 18 - Why?
DeleteSometimes 'High' volume with lack-luster price appreciation can be a sign of distribution. I think what is noteworthy in the current market is the consistently high downside volume. A massive amount of capital is exiting the market.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Bly8qgkK/
ReplyDeleteIs that still in play?
So, I was looking at this quite carefully on Friday. In cash, and in the ES March futures (lead contract only), it is still in play. BUT in the roll-over contract (ES1!) it is not in play because the ii would have been exceeded higher in that instrument. It introduces some significant uncertainty. That's one of the reasons I am saying "keep it simple" right now. This roll-over business is something else. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ