On the intraday chart of the ES 30-min (March 2026) futures, simplest is best right now. As the chart shows, two parallels can be drawn around current price action. They should be respected until they should break, if either does.
The overnight pounding action from above on the 6,820 level tends to indicate a triangle, but that is not locked in stone. If it is a triangle, the up wave can be an a / b sequence as shown. But, if the structure is some kind of quasi-structure, or a w-x-y, then the up wave could evolve as an impulse sequence shown as the alternate i / ii. The Principle of Equivalence still tells us to mind our p's and q's until we get some waves with more definitive lengths to the upside or the downside and potential channel breaks.
The daily count options have not changed. To the upside is perhaps the potential daily expanding triangle. And to the downside is still the potential daily expanded flat.
Yes, one could bring in a lot of other considerations: the Santa Rally, the 'holiday effect', ending the year and the quarter on a high for both political gains and capital gains purposes, the typical holiday low volume, etc. But in an Elliott Wave blog, the main consideration is whether the price pattern is an impulse or not. So far, there are three-waves-up. The Smart Money can do a lot of things: gap up, grind up, gap down, etc. Try to use the parallels to check what path best fits and accept the results.
Keep it simple. Have an excellent start to the evening and the weekend.
TraderJoe
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