GOLD - Weekly & Daily

In the prior post (LINK here), I said that it was very difficult on the long-term chart to keep degree labels making sense and to get reasonable Fibonacci ratios unless a triangle was considered for the Cycle IVth wave, after the 2012 top. I also said for that reason I was still counting "by parallels" until that was no longer possible. But where are (is) that parallel, and what is the count? The chart below shows the likely parallel at present.

GOLD (GC) Futures - Weekly - Degree Analysis

The parallel is based on the fact that the largest and longest correction should be the larger degree correction by degree labeling. So, it is given the label of Primary ②. And it is much less than a 38% correction, so that means that the prior wave was highly likely an extended first wave, x①. So far, that is holding true as Primary ③ is shorter than Primary ①. Further, the Elliott Wave Oscillator is near a high, so this agrees with a large third wave at this position. As another sign of this count, there are no significant overlaps at this point, and the most likely overlap warning level is shown. So, IF a Primary ④th wave can hold the parallel, then the wave has a good chance of finishing like an impulse. Remember that a ④th wave can be one of several types of triangles if it wishes. This may make trading very tricky & whippy. Keep in mind the ④ and ⑤ shown on the chart are placeholders only - just to keep track of the count, not to indicate the levels price should reach or when it should reach them.

And what about wave Intermediate (5) of Primary ③, how is that finishing? The daily chart shows that wave below.

GOLD (GC) Futures - Daily - Local Count

So far, from the Intermediate (4)th wave on the daily chart, with its EWO signature at or below the zero line, there appears to be an expanded diagonal fifth wave which has already made a new high. So, if there is to be a Primary ④th wave, then it might come back down to the level of the prior fourth wave, which would be the Intermediate (4)th in this case. So far, this wave is on a daily divergence with the EWO, which is often the case for fifth waves. So, the indications are that the technicals are working at this point, and there is still some wiggle room at the high.

Again, while this is not trading or investment advice, be prepared for highly whippy and volatile price movement, or very tough compression or whippy action if a triangle forms.

This is the second post since Thursday. Have an excellent rest of the day and weekend.

TraderJoe