From a wave-counting perspective, the Dow is the one showing the most stretched wave count, and it is the one to worry about going forward. Still within the context of an Intermediate wave (3), the count for an overall contracting diagonal is just about as full as it can get. Let's go over some reasons why below the weekly chart that follows of the Dow (YM) futures.
First of all, we said that if wave W wasn't divided into two waves, ⓐ and ⓒ, then current wave X (or alternative wave 2) would be longer in time than the prior higher degree wave in the same direction - Intermediate wave (2). This would seem to be a violation of degree definitions.
Second, within Y, minute ⓐ is equal to the minute ⓐ within W. And, still within Y, minute ⓒ equals its minute ⓐ at present.
Third, Minor Y is longer in time than Minor W. So, either the two waves are of the same degree or Y is one degree higher. Right now, I contend they are of the same degree.
Fourth, Minor Y is within 1.618 times Minor W. This is really up against the limits of a double zigzag in terms of price length.
And Fibonacci Fifth, the alternation pattern within the corrective sequence would be ⓒ of Y is an expanding diagonal whereas ⓒ of W is a contracting diagonal.
Yes, this is a bit of a bizarre pattern, but - make no mistake - it represents continued fiscal and monetary expansion pushing asset prices higher and higher.
Price has currently returned to the parallel shown. It is possible we can construct one bounce higher towards 44,000, but the risks are considerably more in relying on that than the reverse - that the current expanding diagonal higher will be retraced in less time than the diagonal took to form. And should price return to trading inside of the parallel, it will tend to indicate that the up move is expiring.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteYour take on election results?
Fyi..https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/01/nvidia-to-join-dow-jones-industrial-average-replacing-intel.html
The market's recent rise is likely 'discounting' a settled count and a peaceful transition of power. The opposite of that would likely create a lot of volatility. That is all. TJ.
DeleteOn a second note, I should also just provide the information that the NY Composite Index (NYA) already has downward overlap. This is a 'broad-based' warning indication.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KGCSzcgC/
TJ
if the wedge is 5 up, then there is no warning or overlap on this specific chart. correct?
DeleteCorrect at this time. That is why I said a higher high to 44,000 is 'possible'. BUT that fights the local closing bias (lower), and the local swing-line indicator - lower, and so a higher high should be assessed as having lower odds. Not impossible - just lower odds.
DeleteTJ
Put call on vix highest level in 4 years. https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_vix_putcall_ratio
ReplyDeleteThe financial talking heads all seem to have concluded that Dow Theory is no longer relevant, and giddily assert the economy is in great shape owing to the "resilient" consumer, never mind credit card debt being at historic highs, interest rates on the ten year ignoring FED dovish blather, and M2 declining the most in over 90 years year over year. The right sloping H&S DJIA pattern suggests weakness in that index.
ReplyDeleteReminder: Factory Orders scheduled @ 10 AM. TJ.
ReplyDeletePrint is most certainly worse than reported. If there was a way to credibly lie about the number they would have this close to Nov 5.
DeleteSPY 1-hr: while there is a new lower daily low than last week, the cash index traded down into the gap, but did not fill the close-to-open gap, as shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IN9SFpkT/
The Dow cash too made a lower daily low.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ