According to the SPY 10-min chart shown in the prior comments, we were expecting a fifth wave up, and that occurred for most of the day today with the exception of a 20-point sell-off into the close which may be just profit-taking at the end of the week. And, of course, that's a very short-term chart. It is likely that wave, if ended, is only part of a longer wave in time. Now backing off to the ES 1-Hr chart, granted it is still quite short term, we can see this wave structure which may be the extended first wave type-structure.
The primary count shown in black with circled numbers is of an impulse with an extended first wave. We do not know for a fact that up movement ended - even temporarily - at today's high, but there is a non-overlapping five-wave-structure from ② to that point. If the channel holds (roughly), and there is no overlap, then maybe an impulse will complete.
If not, the alternate count - shown in red - is that maybe we only have the first three waves a,b,c of wave ① of an ending diagonal that might be accompanied by some stiff retraces.
Let's see how it goes early next week. Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
There has been no pullback at all for 3 straight sessions. It doesn't at all feel like a 5th wave and it is unlikely a 3rd wave. To me it's pointing to a some kind of C wave since Tuesday. We are at weekly BB resistance and through the daily BB for three sessions. The vix also looks to be some sort of C wave down. To keep this kind of move going until Thanksgiving is highly unlikely. Thank you for the charts and count and have a great weekend.
ReplyDeleteWe're in agreement that, depending on the context, it could be a C wave, especially like in the Dow (YM). Right now we may just be in three of C. Or such a C wave 'might' for a diagonal at the end of the move. Patience, welcome, and have a good weekend, too. TJ.
DeleteIf it is an impulse the 4 is already there - the long sideways move, with alternation to two "sharp decline".
ReplyDeleteRSI follows the waves and clearly shows this is not a sub-wave.
While you might be correct, note that the b wave of wave two goes up to about 90% +/- on the 10/06 session. So, it may not have alternation yet. There might be a triangle for four or a diagonal fifth. I am giving the most liberal interpretation I can at this point, with the clear overlap warning noted. The reason for the 'liberal' interpretation is that advances were stronger than decliners throughout the whole week, and NYSE 52-wk highs were much higher than NYSE 52-wk lows throughout the week as well.
DeleteBut again, you 'could be' correct, and time and/or overlap will show it.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ