Very much a third wave

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The S&P500 closed higher by almost +26 points today. A day like today must convince the outright bears - some of whom are readers here - that the market is, in fact, stronger than they thought. On-the-other-hand, I have been steadfastly making the case for the Minor 5th wave higher - likely an impulse wave - not exactly sure how it would occur..

The daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index is below for reference. 

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Nearing the Upper Channel Line

The significance of  today is that price crossed the (iii) = 100% x (i) price level. That means that this particular wave sequence is now not a sub-wave of wave (iii). That would be a degree violation. Today means we must very likely be in the third wave, minute (iii) itself, and likely in it's fifth wave sequence higher.

Again, trading over the upper channel line would likely completely validate that third wave momentum. We will watch to see if it occurs as we expect. On the daily chart from now on, we will only show the wave from the Minor 4 terminal as the triangle is likely cemented. It was predictive. It has done it's job.

Furthermore, since price is beyond both the 78% retrace of wave (a) of the triangle, and beyond 90% of that same wave, we are in the area where truncated waves can and do occur - if they are going to to. There is no more reason to discuss Minor 4 - with one lower probability exception: since price has attained the 90% level there is still a "chance" - just a chance - this is still a B wave higher. It would be the B wave of an even larger flat wave for a Minor 4.

There are three problems with that scenario: 1) that count would not currently agree with the weekly Elliott Wave Oscillator, 2) there is virtually no downward price evidence for such a count, and 3) it would create an even larger disagreement with the potential degree violation between Minor 4 and Intermediate (4).

No, the higher probability scenario - particularly after today - is we are in Minor 5, even if it truncates.

The trend is your friend, until it is not. Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe