Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
No changes to the current count on the hourly, daily or weekly time frames. While the cash S&P500 Index was up quite strongly, the ES E-Mini S&P500 was up even more after the close of cash trading.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Likely in Minute (iv) |
With today's gap up and follow-through, we may very well be in the minute (iv)th wave. This wave might appear as a triangle and should contact the lower trend channel boundary at some point in time.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator is now on a red histogram bar.
The clear alternate for this count would that the market topped at (iii) as a truncated fifth wave, but the odds of the alternate (and the reason why it is the alternate) are very low as downward price action does not justify it yet. In the alternate, the wave x is the (d) wave of the larger triangle, and y is the (e) wave of the larger triangle. The alternate count does not work as well with the Elliott Wave Oscillator.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Hey TJ,
ReplyDeleteIs there anyway to count the last 36 hours in the /ES as bullish? All I see is a lot of chop. But, I think we could go higher at anytime.
I think it's part of a triangle that might break to the upside.
Deleteahhh. Thanks. I see it now.
Deletelooking at the daily chart why is the max ewo in 2nd wave? wouldnt thatmean that we need big move ahead to make oscillator have max reading?
ReplyDeleteStep 3 - locate the maximum value of EWO. This location is reserved for wave iii of 3 in an impulse wave. Note the value of the EWO at this location.
Because no part of a wave three can break a trend line from zero to the end of two, extended forward into wave three (except in diagonals). This is a Neely guideline which has been most helpful.
DeleteThe Eight Fold Path Methodology is specifically written for the case where the third wave is the extended wave in the sequence. As I have noted in recent blog posts, I expect the fifth wave to be the extended wave in the sequence here.
Deletethanks. I was curious not about where wave 3 begins, but why the oscillator's curent high is in wave 2. Do you expect that highto be surpassed in wave 3?
DeleteE-mini S&P is getting picture perfect -- wave A of (iv) ended on Monday, and we are working on the B wave now. At this point I am to sure if B is done or we just finished a of B, and b of B, c of B to follow. It should be followed by a C of (iv) later this week. But from pattern timing, I have difficult believing this will just be a plain single zig zag. It could morph possibly into a double-zig zag or flat.
ReplyDeleteHowever, if this is really (iv) and we are starting (v), by rules of alternation, I expect it to be a single zig -zag that completes fast, since (ii) was an irregular flat that took a lot of time to complete.
Time will tell.
What's wrong with a triangle that I have mentioned in prior posts? And not just the simple zigzag, double zigzag or flat you have suggested?
DeleteAnother Neely rule is that no part of wave iv can overlap, including any part of a wave iv triangle. Normally, a wave iv overlap refers to the overlap of wave i, but when wave ii is an expanded flat, then logic would conclude that no part of wave iv can overlap what you have labelled as wave x on 6/13. The DJI has already overlapped. So this means to me, that if your count is going to be correct, then wave iii has to subdivide, meaning that the decline the past few days is (ii) of iii, not wave iv.
DeleteSee comment below.
DeleteJoe, in terms of wave-symmetry I find it hard to see a triangle follow a wave 4 of (iii) which is a flat (and resembles a running triangle). Also I don't expect this correction to last beyond 1-2 weeks (August 15th).
ReplyDeleteAlso, in responding to mblcta, are degree viotations true violations of elliott waves? I have historically seen wave 1 being miniscule in compared to wave 3, and assuming wave (i) of 3 should be smaller than 1 seems like a hard requirement. Counting this as wave ((i)) of (iii) , with ((ii)) on-going seems like the correct count here, and I suspect ((ii) is going to be a flat here based on previous occurances of this pattern.
SVS, you raise a good question, so let's have Joe answer it. My primary count is very different than Joe's, and it doesn't have the situation that you're asking about.
DeleteI have addressed the best alternate in recent posts. That is the larger triangle, and this would either be a truncated fifth or the recent high - which is the only clear five-wave sequence - was only minute (i) of Minor 5, and we would now be in minute (ii) of Minor 5. This alternate has no degree violations in it. Again, there is not sufficient evidence to say a truncated minor 5th has occurred.
DeleteJoe, because the DJI can't be a triangle, and because the NYA is so "flat", I still think the odds favor that 2/9 to 7/25 was a WXY. The decline from 2848-2798 looks like a clear 5 waves down to me, which is the first time that's happened since the 4/2 low. The alternate would be the same as yours, meaning that 1/26 to 6/28 was a wave iv, no matter how you want to label the internal subdivisions.
DeleteThis IS The Fourth Wave Conundrum. Everyone clamors to know what the count is. One can guess and guess. How about we make sure we are out of the upward wave first? As I titled a prior post, "Interim Top Possible, Not Proven".
DeleteForce index futures diverging. After a outside day down.
ReplyDelete2 day Force index... sorry
Delete