Market Indexes: Most Major U.S. Equity Indexes were higher; NDX lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
All parameters for the potential triangle in the hourly S&P500 Cash Index remain in place. The chart is below. The futures were somewhat lower overnight, on news out of Germany, but not a single tick of that made it into the cash session today. Interesting!
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Potential Hourly Triangle |
There remains a slim possibility the triangle ended on 17 Nov with the crossing of the (0) point, the high of the prior third wave. We expected today to be higher. It was. Tomorrow, too, could be slightly higher yet, maybe a close a gap, and still be a B wave within a continuing (e) wave of the triangle.
The invalidation point for the downward (e) wave, is the high of the prior (d) wave to the up side, and the prior (c) wave to the down side.
It seems more likely that (e) wave would continue, as this would help provide a better look to the triangle, and it would likely help better serve the overall purpose of a triangle which is to waste time and travel sideways.
The alternate count remains the Expanding Leading Diagonal (shown as the w-x-y-x-z, here) until or unless the high at (b) is violated.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
ET, in the case of a triangle, a breakout to the upside will have a target equal to the distance from (a) to (b) taken from (e), correct?
ReplyDeleteThat is the usual target, but we are high up in the wave structure and, in the case of a triangle, any higher high might qualify.
DeleteExcellent points!
ReplyDeleteI'll hold my investment decision until this is confirmed by completing(e) or a new high is broken above(b).
I have learnt more reading your articles in a few months time, than all the EW books I have read through! You really should think about writing a book yourself on the EW analysis!
Thanks again!
Regards
Bent B. Jensen
Thanks! I'll give it some thought.
DeleteEvery time I look at gold it keeps looking better and better both daily and weekly.
ReplyDeleteI guess volume will be low Wednesday and Friday. Have a great Thanksgiving!
Thanks Bill. For reader clarification you might like to state upwards better or downwards better? And why. Have a good Thanksgiving, too!
DeleteJoe, how would the contracting triangle fit into the larger count? I'm assuming you're calling it a 4th wave, but I've lost track of what comes before it. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteRefer to the bottom to charts in the Nov 5th post; https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2017/11/profound-conflict-and-ways-forward.html (copy and paste link, as needed).
DeleteJoe, thanks for the analysis. Why are you discounting the expanding leading diagonal downwards here and considering the triangle as the main wave?
ReplyDeleteAs I suggested earlier, it would have been more impressive if the Leading Expanding Diagonal expressed it's Motive character by making a new lower low over the (a) wave. That did not occur, so it makes one suspicious as to whether it is motive, or just corrective.
Delete