Still in Line

In a bit of a testy session, the S&P500 opened slightly higher again, then traded lower, but did not make new daily lows beyond the prior (c) wave of ((iv)). Then, prices traded higher in a tricky five-wave impulse, then they traded lower in a three-wave decline. So we have given today's labels (a), up, and (b), down of the potential wave ((v)) of wave C.

SP500 2-Hr Chart Close on the Trend line

Today's erratic, low volume price movement closed right on the lower red-dotted trend line - as best we can draw it. So the market seems to know it is there. (And the ES daily futures again are settling right on the 18-day SMA).

First, here is a chart showing how this market was counted today in the real time chat room from the prior wave ((iv)), which is shown as 0 on this very short term three-minute chart.

SP500 Cash 3-Minute Chart

As best we could tell using the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and the Eight-Fold Path Method, there were five-waves up. Because of how sloppy and lazy they are, they could very well be that next (a) wave up. Then, there were three clear waves down to just short of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This is often (b) wave territory.

Then, there were five clear waves up to end the day before a slight pull-back. This could be wave i of (c). In order for this diagonal to hold, then this morning's lows should hold. And that raises the invalidation level to 2431 (in cash).

Next, we want to comment that the Dow has some downward overlaps. It also twice traded today below that 21,374 level which is the C = 1.618 x A extension level we have written about before and which appears in the prior YouTube video. Because the Dow now can be counted as having a small degree five wave down count, I do not know whether it will make a new high or not. It could, but it does not have to.

Once again, even wave (c) and wave ((v)) of C in the above S&P500 2-hr chart, are not obligated to make a new high. They could, but, remember, in dealing with a flaky (b) wave, truncation is possible!

Well. That's it for me today. Have a nice start to the weekend!
TraderJoe