Same Conclusion

When one looks across the markets and not just at the Dow, we see it is possible to reach the same conclusion among many of them, now. We know that the NQ futures had been rocketing higher and made an all time high on Friday before reversing. But, as the chart below shows, similar conclusions are possible for the SP500, the DOW and the Russell 2000 - all on the same day.

Major Markets Synchronize Their Highest Prices Ever

What was nice to see was the Russell 2000 also make that highest high because it, too, now qualifies for the (b) wave of an expanded flat fourth wave. It had previously make three waves down in May, and now does not show an impulse up because of the overlapping middle wave.

GOLD as well may be in an interesting position. We had called the Leading Diagonal A wave perfectly in real time on 4-hour charts. The Daily chart is below.

Daily GOLD (GC) - Having Trouble Holding a Channel

Next, we noted at wave (a), the upward move was having trouble peaking above the channel as a third wave should, and, in fact, prices broke below the lower channel boundary at (b), and then tried to "ride" the lower channel boundary upward, and did so, for nearly a month. But, with the new higher high earlier this month, there was no overt sign of strength. Each of the higher highs, in April and June diverged from the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO).

And now, after a marginal higher high, price finds itself back to close on the lower channel boundary. We also note at no point in time has price reached a level where a C wave would even equal and A wave in length. See the Fibonacci Ruler to see where the 100% mark is.

Further we note the first down move from Feb '17 to Mar '17 was shorter in time than the A wave. Further, the second down move from Apr '17 to May '17 was not only shorter in time than the A wave, it was shorter in time than the wave we have labeled as the (a) wave up. But this down move is also longer in price than the first down move - ruling out an overall diagonal pattern at this point in the analysis. It is also telling that there is no apparent alternation in these down moves, which should tell the alert analyst, we are not dealing with an overall impulse wave up.

So for ease of example, let's say - and we're not locked in on label degrees yet - we had minor A, up, as the Leading Diagonal in Mar '17. Then we could have had three waves down to minute ((a)) down, i.e. circle-a, down in Mar '17. Then, we could have had three clean waves up to minute ((b)), circle-b, up, in Jun '17, which would now also qualify for a flat wave sequence. The upward move from Mar '17 does have a very obvious three-wave look to it now.

If prices break below the channel and print full candles below the channel, then it could form a minute ((c)) wave lower to make an over all minor B wave, lower. Now, this B wave would be longer in time than the minor A wave, and prepare for the C wave up. If a Minor B wave lower successfully occurs, then we would redraw the channel accordingly.

Why, you might ask, would GOLD prices and equity prices both decline at the same time? Well, there are certain circumstances where forced liquidations in equities cause people to sell some of their gold in order to fund their equity account. It happens. We'll see if that occurs this time, too.

I hope this helps and I hope you have a nice weekend.
TraderJoe