Here is an update to the chart presented on January 1st, 2016. As you have likely heard by now, the first week of the year was a stinker! This pretty much followed the script and count we had outlined on January 1, and we were able to call it wave-by-wave in the real time chat room.
We appear to have completed minor A down of Intermediate (Y). The structure did form a valid Expanding Leading Diagonal, at least to this point. I wish I could tell you in advance how deep the minor B retracement wave will go, but unfortunately since the downward diagonal is best described as a 3:3:3:3:3 diagonal, and as an A wave, it neither necessarily calls for a deep retrace or the start of a bear market. As a B wave, it could typically be expected to retrace between 23% and 76%, of the entire diagonal but could go deeper. A retrace back to the 20-day SMA might be a good place to start.
The Expanding Leading Diagonal does call for lower prices in the eventual C wave, and so, at some point we would expect the low if Intermediate wave (W) to be taken out lower. The only restriction of the valid diagonal at this point is that price may not travel above (X), and still expect minor C lower.
Cheers and enjoy the chart!
Really nice, Joe!
ReplyDeleteBust in the case the current down-swing V from 2081 makes 5 waves wouldn't it make the whole structure look like zigzag - x -flat? And the wave 4 triangle wouldn't be ruled out then as long as the October low holds?
Thanks a lot.
Thanks. The Primary wave 4 triangle still struggles from the fact that the intermediate (B) wave would be shorter in time than the Intermediate (A) wave. Usually, the (A) waves of triangles are the shortest in time and most violent. This (A) wave was pretty violent but the (B) wave was shorter in time. So, while it is a 'possible' count still, it is not the most likely, yet. There are ways it could become the most likely count. But, the triangle also suffers from the fact that it does not work on the DJIA, the WLSH or the RUT because the (C) wave is lower.
DeleteThanks again Joe! VERY much appreciated!
ReplyDeleteminor B would fit at today's 50/200DMA crossover of SPX 2058
ReplyDeleteA good possibility!
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ReplyDeleteHey Joe, are you ever going to go back to doing your YouTube videos?
ReplyDeleteDo you have a twitter handle? And which room are you trading in please?
ReplyDeleteGreat forecast Joe
ReplyDeleteThe C wave has done the deed, going below (W)
Now maybe we can expect an initial 38% to 50% retracement .